Beyond the Basics: Advanced Metrics to Describe Every D-I Women's Top 20 Team

Lacrosse Reference goes beyond the box score. Beyond the basics, if you will.

Lacrosse Reference was created in 2016 with the goal of bringing the analytical methods used in other sports to college lacrosse. The site’s focus has been on finding innovative ways to compare teams and players that are more nuanced than the broad-brush metrics that were common at the time.

As we near the beginning of the 2023 season, these are the metrics that matter about the teams in our Nike/USA Lacrosse Division I Women’s Preseason Top 20.

For a glossary of terms, head here.

1. NORTH CAROLINA

Like moths to a flame, the transfer portal means that success tends to attract players. Look no further than North Carolina. EGA is my metric to measure all the good and bad things that a player does. And the players who are transferring into Chapel Hill this year did a lot in 2022. The Heels are importing a total of 141.1 EGA via the transfer portal, which is tops in Division I women’s lacrosse.

2. MARYLAND

There may be no team that is more excited to see the season disruptions of COVID in the rearview mirror than Maryland. In 2019, the Terps finished ranked No.1 in both opponent-adjusted offense and opponent-adjusted defense. Their draw unit was fifth, and their goalies were second. In 2022, those ranks were third, seventh, seventh and first. In between were two forgettable seasons, at least relative to the standard that Cathy Reese has established in College Park.

3. BOSTON COLLEGE

My favorite new stat for the 2023 season is on-goal shooting percentage. We tend to think of shooting percentage is reflecting a goal or no goal outcome, but that’s wrong. Shots that are missed off-cage are much less damaging to an offense than shots that are saved by the goalie (and likely sent the other way in transition). A team that has more of their misses off-cage rather than saved will be a more efficient offense. So, we need an on-goal shooting percentage stat to tell us how a team does on high-leverage shots, the ones that are on-cage. Boston College was the leader across Division I in this area last year: a full 68% of their on-cage shots went in.

4. STONY BROOK

The Seawolves finished the 2022 campaign with the top-rated defense in the country, as measured by opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency. It was the third time in the past eight seasons that they finished on top in this metric, but the first time since 2017. And it’s hard to point to one thing that made the difference. They allowed just .43 shots-per-possession (1st); they turned teams over on 36% of the possessions they faced (2nd) and their keepers saved 48.1% of the shots on goal (3rd). No weaknesses there.

5. NORTHWESTERN

When a team like Northwestern loses top contributors to graduation, you expect them to reload. When you think about the fact that they are bringing in the fourth-most production via transfers AND they get Izzy Scane back and hopefully healthy, there won’t be any drop-off in expectations alongside Lake Michigan. But keep an eye out for graduate student Elle Hansen asserting herself as a key contributor. She missed six games last year, but when she was on the field, she had the Wildcats’ highest individual efficiency mark. Extremely high assist and ball security numbers plus a very low saved-shot percentage equals the potential to break-out.

6. SYRACUSE

I don’t have enough good things to say about Meaghan Tyrrell. Usage-adjusted-EGA is my measure of individual player efficiency, and her rating has gone up steadily over four years in the Dome. If that wasn’t enough, last year, she had literally zero weak spots. I measure seven core offensive statistics for every player. The include stats for overall efficiency, assist generation, shooting and ball security. Her worst stat (assists-per-touch) put her in the 85th percentile nationally. That is wild.

7. RUTGERS

The Scarlet Knights were one of the breakout teams of Division I last season. Lax-Elo is a predictive metric that describes overall program strength. On a neutral field, a team with a higher Lax-Elo rating would be predicted to win. And last year, Rutgers finished the season with their highest Lax-Elo rating (1797), which was good for 21st nationally.

8. FLORIDA

EGA is my metric for overall player production. It’s like WAR in baseball or PER in basketball. It takes all the good and bad things that a player does and puts it into a single number. And since it’s an all-in-one metric, it’s a good way to look at returning production. Measured this way, EGA suggest that a good word to describe the 2023 Florida Gators is continuity. The Sunshine State Reptiles return 98.6% of their production from last season.

9. STANFORD

The Cardinal finished the 2022 season with the 21st-best offensive rating in the country, and Ashley Humphrey was the engine that made that train go. She finished with a whopping 51.8% of the team’s assists. Unsurprisingly, her per-touch assist rate put her in the 99th percentile nationally. But she was really a double-threat. I measure the percentage of each player’s on-goal shots that go in (as opposed to being saved); Humphrey’s 73% on-goal shooting percentage was in the 94th percentile overall. At first glance, 73% shot-on-goal might seem like a weakness for her, but it’s the shots that end up on cage that really determine an offense’s success.

10. DENVER

The post-Behrins era at Peter Barton is here, but it’s the defense that has helped Denver reach the heights it has reached these past few years. Last year, the Pios ended with the third-rated opponent-adjusted defense last year. They haven’t finished a season worse than seventh by this metric since 2017.

11. DUKE

Last year, the Blue Devils finished with the second-ranked draw control unit (only Northwestern was better). And with Maddie Jenner coming back to Durham this spring, expect that to continue. Since 2016, nobody has won more draws than Jenner, and it’s not particularly close. With 602 wins and a season left to go, this is going to be one of those situations where whoever ends up in second all-time is going to be closer to 20th than to Jenner in first.

12. JAMES MADISON

The Dukes are the poster-child for why you should take “returning share of points” statistics with a grain of salt. There is more to a player’s contribution than points. I use EGA to measure everything that a player does with an apples-to-apples metric. If you just look at returning share of points, JMU ranks 24th, but if you use the more inclusive calculation that takes into account turnovers, ground balls, etc., then that ranking shoots up to 14th. Production is what matters, not points.

13. VIRGINIA

EGA is my metric for overall player production. It’s like WAR in baseball or PER in basketball. It takes all the good and bad things that a player does and puts it into a single number. And since it’s an all-in-one metric, it’s a good way to look at returning production. Fortunately for UVA, 90% of its EGA production is back for the 2023 season. And if there is one player you’d look at to pick up where she left off, it might be Rachel Clark. Her ACC Freshman of the Year season finished with a usage-adjusted-EGA mark (basically individual player efficiency) that put her in the 88th percentile nationally.

14. NOTRE DAME

The Irish offense finished 2022 with the 13th-ranked efficiency in Division I women’s lacrosse. After you adjust for the fact that they played a better-than-average set of defenses, they jumped up to 9th. A big part of their offensive success was the play of Jackie Wolak, who generated more than a quarter of the team’s assists. Over the past few seasons, she has really cut her turnover rate, which resulted in a 95th-percentile 1.19 assist-to-turnover ratio last year.

15. LOYOLA

The Greyhounds finished 2022 with the fourth-best offense in the country and the fourth-best defense in the country. That, in and of itself, made them a tough out last year. But here’s a stat for you: They also led Division I women’s lacrosse with a +201 possession advantage. Thanks to a ride unit, clear unit and draw unit that were all top 10, they averaged nine more offensive possessions than opponents. If they can be anywhere close to that mark again in 2023, look out.

16. USC

As USC heads into 2023, it’ll have to replace Kelsey Huff’s production from last year. Huff took 15% of the team’s shots, and perhaps more importantly, had the second-highest individual player efficiency on the team. Keep an eye out for Maggie Brown this year; she was the only player on the team with a higher efficiency rating than Huff. In limited playing time, she managed an 80th-percentile assist rate, a 96th-percentile ball security rating AND she shot 46% while having only 10 shots saved all season. Breakout candidate right there.

17. PRINCETON

In addition to the retirement of Chris Sailer, Princeton will also be replacing 26% of its assists and 22% of its shots (Kyla Sears), as well as the backbone of the defense in Marge Donovan. Look for Kate Mulham to pick up the slack in terms of generating offense. She finished with a 91st-percentile assist-to-turnover ratio last year. And sharp-shooter Grace Tauckus should pick up some of the scoring slack. Her on-goal shooting percentage of 73% put her in the 93rd percentile among qualifying players nationally.

18. MICHIGAN

The good news: In 2022, Arielle Weissman took a pretty significant leap in net. The bad news: She’s not on the 2023 roster. The Wolverines finished the 2022 season ranked fifth in opponent-adjusted save percentage after finishing 58th in 2021. That was a part of their defensive ranking jumping from 62nd to 10th. Big Blue will have a goalie battle this spring, but whether Maya Santa-Maria, Mariah Sweeney or Erin O’Grady wins the job, the position is an unknown. Collectively, those three goalies faced a total of 34 shots last season.

19. JACKSONVILLE

The Dolphins finished last year with the fifth-best offensive efficiency in the country, but just the 18th-best shooting percentage and the 21st-ranked turnover rate. What gives? The short answer is that they gave themselves a lot of bits at the apple. Jacksonville averaged 0.79 shots per possession, which was third nationally.

20. RICHMOND

The Spiders return not one, but two players who finished the 2022 season in the top 100 for total EGA (expected goals added). Arden Tierney posted a 64.7 EGA mark for the year (53rd nationally), and Lindsey Frank finished with 55.8 (87th nationally). Of the primary rotation, Marina Miller will need to be replaced, but otherwise, 83 percent of the team’s total production (as measured by EGA) returns for the 2023 season.