NCAA Bracketology: A Surprising Team on the Outside Looking In

The NCAA released its first RPI update of the season Monday. And to state the obvious, there’s still a long way to go.

No conference games have been played in the ACC, Atlantic 10, Atlantic Sun, Big East and Big Ten. Those leagues alone account for more than half of USA Lacrosse Magazine’s first projected field of 18 this season, and the team with the best RPI — however flawed the formula is — is currently a stand-in for the automatic qualifiers in the latter four leagues.

(Yes, it’s an 18-team field for the first time since 2016. Do welcome back the Northeast Conference, which means there are 10 leagues eligible for an automatic bid.)

There are a few early conclusions to draw, and they line up with what has happened over the last seven weekends. Maryland built a tournament-worthy resume even before it played a conference game. Princeton has also done plenty of valuable work in its first month of the season.

Also notable is who is absent. Denver, an NCAA semifinalist last season and 4-4 so far this year, is nowhere it be seen thanks to an RPI of 42. Ditto 3-4 Virginia, which isn’t even on the board because of its losing record.

Both have plenty of things to take care of in the back half of the regular season, though their absences open up possibilities for other teams to leave a mark — opportunities that are already starting to present themselves.

The following is based on RPI data available on Monday, March 18.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (10)

Maryland doesn’t have any flaws to fix in its on-paper resume, right down to a strength of schedule that won’t give it any problems after tacking on at least six games against Big Ten opponents. … Cornell’s profile might not be quite as strong as Maryland’s, but it’s plenty good enough to  this point, especially after Saturday’s defeat of Princeton. …

Can’t overstate enough how much a victory over North Carolina could impact things for Army in two Saturdays. That could be the difference between having wiggle room in May and needing to win the Patriot League tournament just to make the NCAA field. … A good start for UMass, which gets the A-10 nod by virtue of its superior RPI to fellow top-20 teams Richmond and Saint Joseph’s. …

Fairfield has already taken the RPI that simply playing winless Hampton delivers. Relatedly, the Stags’ strength of schedule figures to take a considerable jump in the next few weeks. … There might not be much help in Big East play to bolster Georgetown’s metrics. No one else in the league is ranked higher than 33rd entering the week. …

Jacksonville lost to Duke, North Carolina and Syracuse during non-conference play. It has an open date before its Atlantic Sun schedule begins. … With the extra automatic berth this season and four teams needed for play-in games, it’s going to be difficult for the NEC, America East or Metro Atlantic champions to escape a play-in game.