NCAA Bracketology: Significant Losses Hardly a Factor (For Now)

With plenty of data to slice and dice, the NCAA lacrosse committee usually has one or two factors each year that help it make the close calls (whether in seeding or selection) as it constructs the 17-team field.

Those variables aren’t always the same. Sometimes, the teams involved in a comparison aren’t differentiated as clearly by the same factor that was important the year before. And since we’re talking about five human beings in a room and the committee’s composition changes each year, a certain bit of data may be weighed differently from season to season.

For now, though, one element of the committee’s criteria isn’t on track to be a major factor: “Significant losses.” Because, frankly, there just aren’t that many of them. Even the ones that exist aren’t the sort of “how in the world did they lose to those guys” setbacks that have tanked at-large hopes in the past.

Of the top 15 teams in the RPI — where most at-large selections are historically drawn from — entering Wednesday, only four have a loss to a team outside the top 20. Saint Joseph’s lost on a neutral field to No. 21 Boston University. Georgetown opened with a loss at No. 22 Loyola. Johns Hopkins was upset at home by No. 26 Navy. And Penn fell at No. 28 North Carolina two days after winning at Duke.

Obviously, there could be upsets in the next four weekends. And the composition of the top 20 could change; as an example, if No. 20 Colgate slipped even a spot, its opening victory at Penn State would count in the category.

But in going through the data this week, you’d be at a loss to find a significant loss that would impact selection with less than a month to go in the regular season.

The following is based on RPI data available on the morning of Wednesday, April 10.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (9)

Johns Hopkins sits alone atop the Big Ten and is tied for the most top-20 wins with Notre Dame and Virginia. All of the Blue Jays’ games have come against teams in the top 28 of the RPI, with only four (Loyola, Rutgers, Navy and North Carolina) outside the top 20. … Denver’s strength of schedule was dented by facing St. John’s (No. 43), but the Pioneers will get a boost on that front with Georgetown coming to the Mile High City on Saturday. …

Yale has the best RPI of the four teams tied with one loss in the Ivy League, thus its placement as an automatic qualifier. … This is probably the best RPI ranking the NCAA has ever posted for Saint Joseph’s, though it’s likely to dip some over the next two weeks with Hobart (3-7) and St. Bonaventure (1-8) up next for the Hawks. A full 50 percent of the RPI formula is opponents’ winning percentage, and neither of those opponents will help on that front. …

Towson faces the exact same problem this week as it heads to Hampton (0-10). Monmouth slipped from 45th in the RPI to 54th after beating the Pirates on Saturday, while Delaware fell from 24th to 31st the week before. Win or lose, don’t look for the Tigers to be in the RPI’s top 20 next week. … Colgate could wind up a candidate for a flight to Denver if it ultimately makes the field. The Raiders are within the 400-mile radius of Johns Hopkins and Maryland, but not Virginia (let alone Duke, Notre Dame and Denver). …

It's a little early to say it’s Bryant-or-bust if the America East is to avoid the play-in game, since upsets do happen in conference tournaments. But the Bulldogs are the league’s only team ranked above No. 40 in the RPI. … By comparison, there are three such teams in the Atlantic Sun: League leader Air Force, as well as Utah (No. 29) and Jacksonville (No. 31). … Same goes for the Metro Atlantic. Quinnipiac (No. 36), Manhattan (No. 37) and Sacred Heart are clustered together in the RPI. LIU, which is tied with Manhattan a game out of first in the MAAC standings, is 46th.

AT LARGE  (17 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

For the moment, there isn’t much reason to quibble with Notre Dame as the No. 1 seed — especially after its victory at Duke on Sunday. … That loss isn’t so much damaging as it is a missed opportunity for Duke. Fortunately for the Blue Devils, Virginia comes to Durham on Sunday, and Duke has famously had the Cavaliers’ number in the regular season for almost two decades. …

Virginia celebrated the 25th anniversary of its 1999 national title team on Saturday and looked very much like a championship contender itself while ambushing North Carolina. The Cavaliers have ample opportunity the next four weekends to improve their already strong resume when they face Duke, Syracuse and Notre Dame before probably seeing at least one of them again in the ACC tournament. …

Maryland squeaked past Ohio State, but on paper that’s a top-20 win — and it only further strengthens the Terrapins’ case for a first-round home game. … Even with back-to-back losses, Syracuse’s numbers (and especially its victories over Duke and Johns Hopkins) keep it on track to earn a first-round home game. …

Penn State’s numbers are practically the same as Cornell’s, and the Nittany Lions ripped the Big Red in a head-to-head matchup. Hence Penn State owning a slightly larger cushion between it and the edge of the field at the moment . … It’s a big week for Georgetown, which can add a second top-10 win to its profile if it can topple Denver on the road. The Hoyas already own the best victory on the board, an overtime upset of Notre Dame. …

Princeton will not be helped much if it wins at Brown on Saturday, but it most certainly would get hurt if it loses to the 1-9 Bears. … Penn is the last team outside the field this week, with the Quakers’ head-to-head loss to Georgetown at home playing a part in the projection. The Hoyas, with a high-end road victory of their own, are not the team Penn wants to be compared to for a final slot. …

Harvard is going to need more than a victory over Michigan to land an at-large. The opportunity is there the next two weekends, as the Crimson visit Penn and Cornell. … Ohio State is unquestionably better than a year ago, but any at-large hopes are going to hinge on beating Johns Hopkins on Sunday. Otherwise, the Buckeyes will probably need to win the Big Ten tournament. …

Michigan is getting close to that territory as well. A loss on Saturday at Penn State likely puts the Wolverines in the position where it will need to replicate its Big Ten tourney run from a year ago. … Army’s at-large hopes are basically done after losing to Colgate, particularly with its strength of schedule. … Boston University is a fine team, but victories over Saint Joseph’s and Army aren’t going to deliver an at-large berth. …

If there’s a team lurking outside the top 20 that at least has a plausible pathway to an at-large, it is Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights picked off Michigan on Sunday and close the regular season with Maryland and Penn State. Win both — easier said than done — and Rutgers should be around the edge of the field. … The victory over Johns Hopkins is an impressive feat, but Navy isn’t getting an at-large berth. It can, however, land the top seed in the Patriot League by winning out.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The two lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will meet in a play-in game on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-17 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
• Quarterfinal hosts Hofstra and Towson would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Air Force-METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart
(8) IVY/Yale vs. Penn State

Hempstead, N.Y.

(5) BIG EAST/Denver vs. PATRIOT/Colgate
(4) Virginia vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s

Towson, Md.

(3) Duke vs. CAA/Towson
(6) Maryland vs. Georgetown

Towson, Md.

(7) Syracuse vs. Cornell
(2) BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins vs. AMERICA EAST/Bryant

Last three included: Penn State, Cornell, Georgetown
First three on the outside: Penn, Princeton, Harvard
Moving in: Bryant, Colgate, Georgetown
Moving out: Albany, Army, Penn
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Big East (2), Ivy (2)