NCAA Bracketology: At-Large Pool Seemingly Shrinking

One of the points of this weekly bracketing exercise is to keep tabs on just about any team with a chance to play its way into at-large contention for the NCAA tournament.

Yet with three weekends to play, there is a clear division between the top 12 teams and everyone else — and it appears probable some combination of them will account for the eight at-large selections.

There is Duke, Notre Dame, Syracuse and Virginia out of the ACC; the Big East’s Denver and Georgetown; Johns Hopkins, Maryland and Penn State from the Big Ten; and the Ivy League’s Cornell, Penn and Yale.

As for the rest of the field, there isn’t much pressure bubbling up from it.

Teams like Saint Joseph’s (Atlantic 10) and Army (Patriot League) are having fine seasons, but their strength of schedule numbers would hurt in a comparison to the top 12. And everyone from No. 15 to No. 19 in Wednesday morning’s RPI posted by the NCAA — Ohio State, Michigan, Harvard, Colgate and Princeton — lost over the weekend.

Plus, no one outside the top 12 has constructed a deep reservoir of high-end victories. Only four teams in that group own a top-10 victory: Army (at Syracuse), Michigan (against Maryland), Colgate (at Penn State) and Navy (at Johns Hopkins). Colgate, Boston U and Navy each have two victories against the top 20 … and each of them has multiple setbacks outside the top 20.

This late in the season, there aren’t many chances left to enhance postseason resumes. Princeton probably has the clearest path to doing so; it gets Penn and Yale the next two Saturdays. Harvard’s at-large hopes start with beating Cornell this weekend, but more is needed afterward. North Carolina isn’t close to the edge of the field now, but the Tar Heels at least have the chance to play Notre Dame and Duke to close the regular season.

For those inclined to squint closely at the numbers, it might be possible for Michigan, Ohio State or Rutgers to begin a three-game winning streak this week (one that would include a victory over Hopkins or Maryland in the Big Ten semifinals), fall in the conference final and find themselves part of the conversation. But it will require help, and the only certain path to the postseason for those three is to win the Big Ten’s automatic bid.

One last thought on that top 12: At least one of them will miss the tournament. There are eight at-large spots, and no more than three of them (the Big East, Big Ten and Ivy tournament winners) can secure an automatic berth.

It’s possible someone clearly plays their way out in the next few weeks, and there could be a bid thief emerge from any of those three conference tournaments. But 18 days out from Selection Sunday, sorting out which of that group is excluded is likely to be the committee’s toughest, most time-consuming task.

The following is based on RPI data available on the morning of Wednesday, April 17.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (9)

With its metrics and high-end victories, Johns Hopkins has all but locked up a first-round home game in the NCAA tournament. … Denver is just about at the same point as Hopkins after beating Georgetown to take sole possession of the Big East lead. The only team with more top-10 wins than the Pioneers is Notre Dame. …

Yale is well-positioned to return to the NCAA tournament after winning its sixth in a row Tuesday against Hofstra. The Bulldogs close the regular season at home against Albany and Princeton. … Saint Joseph’s continues to handle its business in the Atlantic 10 and takes an eight-game winning streak into Saturday’s home game against St. Bonaventure. …

The best RPI of the six Patriot League teams tied at 4-2 belongs to Army. Also in that logjam: Colgate (No. 18), Loyola (21), Boston U (23), Navy (26) and Lehigh (33). … The pleasant surprise of the week was Towson dropping only two spots in the RPI simply for playing winless Hampton (and then another as trickle-down from fellow CAA member Hofstra’s loss to Yale on Tuesday). The Tigers clinched home-field advantage in the CAA tournament with a 25-2 rout of the Pirates. …

Air Force has won six in a row heading into a week with two home games. The Falcons face Mercer on Wednesday and Jacksonville on Saturday and will clinch the Atlantic Sun’s top seed with a pair of victories. Air Force already has hosting duties for the conference tournament. … Sacred Heart sealed the top seed in the Metro Atlantic tournament with Saturday’s 16-5 drubbing of Mount St. Mary’s. … The America East tournament hosting rights could come down to next week’s game between Albany and Binghamton. The two enter the regular season’s penultimate week tied for the league lead.

AT LARGE  (13 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

Notre Dame has twice as many top-10 victories as anyone else, having picked off No. 2 (Duke), No. 6 (Maryland), No. 7 (Syracuse) and No. 10 (Cornell). And the Irish still have No. 5 (Virginia) and one or two more ACC rematches in the conference tournament to come. … A month ago, Duke’s profile was unremarkable. Now, it has victories over Denver and Virginia. With only two or three games left, the Blue Devils’ seeding floor is probably right around the No. 5 seed — and the top seed is its ceiling. …

Since dropping its last two contests in 2017, Virginia is 24-1 in the game after a loss (and even those were a pair of losses to Loyola split between the 2018 NCAA tournament and the 2019 season opener). The Cavaliers head up to Syracuse coming off Sunday’s loss at Duke. … Maryland still has a bit more work remaining to secure a home game in the NCAA tournament, but unless total chaos is unleashed in conference tournaments, the Terrapins are going to reach their 21st consecutive postseason. …

Whether Syracuse won by one goal or 10 at North Carolina, it counts as a victory for number-crunching purposes. The Orange plays its final regular-season game Saturday against Virginia, but it has already locked up an ACC tournament berth. … Penn State snapped a two-game skid by smothering Michigan on Saturday. The Nittany Lions are a likely tournament team if they handle business (beat Rutgers and their Big Ten quarterfinal opponent).

Cornell’s one-goal loss to Notre Dame didn’t really damage the Big Red’s postseason hopes, but it does represent a missed opportunity. If Cornell can close with defeats of Harvard and Dartmouth, it will be in solid shape entering the Ivy League tournament — though not completely chaos-proof. … Take out the head-to-head win, and Georgetown’s profile isn’t quite as strong as Penn’s. But that February game does exist, and it could turn out to be pivotal in the committee’s discussions early next month. …

It's a stretch including anyone outside the top 15 of this week’s RPI as a credible at-large candidate, since that means each team would take at least one more loss. Could a 9-7 Michigan team that reaches the Big Ten final get in? Or a 10-6 Colgate with at least two losses outside the top 20? That’s dicey. …

Harvard still needs help to make the Ivy League tournament, and its modest resume (its lone top-20 victory is at Michigan) means it needs to do more than pick off Cornell this week to make an at-large push. … Princeton benefits from remaining opportunities: Penn, at Yale and (if it can earn its way in) the Ivy League tournament. But there’s no doubt that Brown loss hurts. …

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The two lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will meet in a play-in game on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-17 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
• Quarterfinal hosts Hofstra and Towson would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Penn State vs. IVY/Yale

Hempstead, N.Y.

(5) Virginia vs. PATRIOT/Army
(4) BIG EAST/Denver vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Air Force

Towson, Md.

(3) BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s
(6) Maryland vs. Cornell

Towson, Md.

(7) Syracuse vs. Georgetown
(2) Duke vs. CAA/Towson

Last three included: Penn State, Cornell, Georgetown
First three on the outside: Penn, Harvard, Michigan
Moving in: Albany, Army
Moving out: Bryant, Colgate
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Big East (2), Ivy (2)