NCAA Bracketology: Duke, Boston U, Hopkins the First Three Out

How this week’s projected NCAA tournament looks depends on a method of breaking ties atop conferences — something that won’t be a problem when the actual committee convenes next month.

The long-running method here during the regular season is to use the RPI to sort out teams even in the loss column atop leagues. (Is it a great solution? No. Is it consistently applied? Yes.) What’s relevant to this week is Michigan (No. 11 in the RPI) barely edges out Ohio State (No. 12) for the Big Ten’s top spot — at least for now.

Put the Wolverines in as an automatic qualifier, and the Buckeyes (with their victories over Notre Dame and Penn State but also a loss to Utah and a so-so strength of schedule for now) would be a compelling at-large pick. Compelling enough to arguably bump Duke from the field in this exercise.

Choose Ohio State as the automatic qualifier for some other arbitrary reason, and Michigan gets matched up for the last spot in the at-large field with a Duke team it lost to in February. The Blue Devils probably get the nod in that case.

Fortunately, the committee will be dealing with a full season’s worth of data, and automatic berths are secured on the field rather than by a formula. That doesn’t make the task of selecting and seeding the field easy, but at least it’s one wrinkle that will resolve itself in the next five weekends.

The following is based on RPI data available on Monday, March 31.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (10)

The numbers remain less flattering than anticipated for Cornell, which means there’s an onus on continuing to pile up victories. The Big Red don’t need any reminders on how precarious it can be to chase an at-large berth without creating some separation from the edge of the field. … Army might have a shot at an at-large berth after toppling North Carolina last week. The Black Knights would be an interesting case if they won out until the Patriot League final. …

Michigan went from no profile to a borderline at-large pick (if necessary) in a span of two weeks. Keep that in mind for Big Ten (and ACC) teams with some work to do this month. … As feisty as Richmond is, its postseason fate is going to come down to winning two games in three days in early May. …

Hofstra hasn’t played in the NCAA tournament since 2011, but the Pride pop into this week’s projection after throttling Delaware on Saturday. Hofstra is one of two unbeatens left in the CAA, along with Towson. Those two don’t meet until the final weekend of April. … Sacred Heart has won four in a row and is now 15-1 against Metro Atlantic opponents over the last two seasons.

Marquette gets the nod over Georgetown (RPI: 30) and Villanova (44) for the Big East’s automatic slot after one week of conference play. … Jacksonville is 0-3 against ACC teams and 6-0 against everyone else. The Dolphins will play host to the Atlantic Sun tournament next month. …

The last undefeated team in America East play is Binghamton, which welcomes UAlbany to town on Saturday. … With Le Moyne (RPI: 38) ineligible for the NCAA tournament as part of its transition process from Division II, Robert Morris occupies the NEC’s automatic berth this week.