There isn’t a better time to double-check the preseason rankings work than right now.
In another week, everyone will be dissecting NCAA tournament matchups. And by the time May is over, one team will have a forever moment and just about everything else will be immaterial.
One way to do the comparison is to euphemistically declare who “exceeded” and “fell short” of expectations. But a more honest approach is to point out who was evaluated incorrectly from the jump.
In complete fairness, it was close-to-impossible to accurately assess the Ivy League after its teams largely sat out in 2021. And sure enough, the Ivies account for more than their share of surprises in comparing how things stand entering May than the start of the year.
With that in mind, here’s what went right and wrong in the preseason forecast.
Pegged correctly as top-10 teams: Virginia (No. 1), Maryland (No. 2), Georgetown (No. 4), Notre Dame (No. 5), Yale (No. 8), Rutgers (No. 10)
Six out of 10 isn’t bad. And this week’s top four were all in the USA Lacrosse top 20 back when it was released two days after Christmas.
Pegged correctly as top-20 teams: Duke (No. 3), North Carolina (No. 6), Penn (No. 9), Denver (No. 12), Army (No. 13), Cornell (No. 18)
There is still time for Duke and Penn to wind up in the top 10, and it wouldn’t be unthinkable for Loyola (preseason No. 7) and Vermont (No. 19) to land in the final rankings if they win their respective conference tournaments this weekend.
Five highest ranked teams entering May that were unranked in the preseason: Brown, Jacksonville, Ohio State, Princeton, Harvard
Brown would have been a difficult team to have in the top 20 a month ago. Five consecutive victories later, the Bears could be argued as a top-five team.
Jacksonville was the virtually out-of-nowhere team, beating Duke and Denver on the road in February and not slipping up the last eight weeks. Ohio State collected a batch of solid victories (Harvard, North Carolina and Notre Dame). Princeton probably still owns the best victory on the board (at Georgetown). And Harvard showed a lot of promise, even if Saturday’s overtime loss to Yale could cost it a postseason berth.
Five highest ranked teams in the preseason that are now unranked: Loyola (No. 7), Lehigh (No. 11), Syracuse (No. 14), Johns Hopkins (No. 15), Delaware (No. 16)
Those top three teams all reached the NCAA tournament last year, which illustrates the recency bias that goes into preseason rankings. For all its multi-year defensive limitations, Syracuse going 4-10 wasn’t on anyone’s radar a few months back. Hopkins has been up and down, and a rigorous schedule meant it was punished when it had an off night. Delaware isn’t too far away; it is the top seed in the Colonial Athletic Association tournament this week.
NIKE/USA LACROSSE
DIVISION I MEN’S TOP 20
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May 2, 2022
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W/L
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Prev
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Next
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1
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Maryland
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12-0
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1
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5/5 vs. Johns Hopkins winner (Big Ten semifinal)
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2
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Georgetown
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13-1
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2
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5/5 vs. Marquette (Big East semis)
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3
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Rutgers
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12-2
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3
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5/5 vs. No. 8 Ohio State (Big Ten semifinal)
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4
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Virginia
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11-3
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4
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Regular season complete
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5
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Brown
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10-4
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10
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5/6 vs. No. 12 Penn (Ivy League semifinal)
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6
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Yale
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10-3
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7
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5/6 vs. No. 10 Cornell (Ivy League semifinal)
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7
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Jacksonville
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13-2
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6
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5/5 vs. VMI (SoCon semifinal)
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8
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Ohio State
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10-4
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8
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5/5 vs. No. 3 Rutgers (Big Ten semifinal)
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9
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Notre Dame
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7-4
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9
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5/7 vs. No. 13 Duke
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10
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Cornell
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11-3
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14
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5/6 vs. No. 6 Yale (Ivy League semifinal)
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11
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Princeton
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9-4
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5
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Regular season complete
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12
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Penn
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8-4
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11
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5/6 at No. 5 Brown (Ivy League semifinal)
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13
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Duke
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11-5
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12
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5/7 at No. 9 Notre Dame
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14
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Denver
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9-5
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13
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5/5 vs. Villanova (Big East semifinal)
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15
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Army
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11-3
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16
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5/6 vs. Loyola/Lehigh/Navy (Patriot League semifinal)
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16
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Harvard
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8-4
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15
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Regular season complete
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17
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North Carolina
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8-6
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17
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Regular season complete
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18
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Richmond
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9-4
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18
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5/5 at High Point (SoCon semifinal)
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19
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Boston U
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10-4
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19
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5/6 vs. Lehigh/Navy/Bucknell (Patriot League semifinal)
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20
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Saint Joseph's
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12-3
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20
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5/5 vs. LIU (Northeasth semifinal)
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Also considered (alphabetical order): Delaware (9-5), Loyola (7-7), Massachusetts (8-5), Navy (9-5), Utah (9-3), Vermont (9-6), Villanova (8-5)