We have entered the time of year where massive jumps and dips in RPI and strength of schedule ratings are less common, so when they do appear they make an impression. For this iteration of bracketology, we break down the biggest winners and losers from last week’s results.
WINNERS
Duke: The biggest story from the weekend. Until Saturday, the Blue Devils fed off a weak non-conference schedule and a weaker-than-normal ACC slate. To put it succinctly, a team with top-10 talent had little to show for it on paper. That’s not the case anymore. Usually, a single victory might push you ahead of one or two teams on the S-curve, but Duke over Boston College has ramifications for a half-dozen teams. The Blue Devils occupy the No. 8 seed in this week’s projections thanks to the signature win and improved RPI.
Maryland: The Terrapins have been lurking all year. Now the meat of their schedule has arrived for high-quality wins and they’re taking advantage of it. A mid-week victory over Princeton was the appetizer and dominating Ohio State in the second half on the weekend was the main course. The Terps are 4-1 against RPI top-20 opponents and move ahead of Stony Brook in our latest projections to No. 5. It’s arguable that they should be ahead of Syracuse, but the Orange do own a No. 2 rank in the RPI and the third-toughest strength of schedule.
Arizona State: The Sun Devils burst into our projections last week and continued their momentum. ASU avoided disaster at Oregon by pulling out an 11-10 overtime win where a loss might have sunk the Devils’ at-large chances. They doubled down by doubling up Colorado on the road just 41 hours later to bolster their profile. Arizona State has won five straight
LOSERS
Colorado: Let’s pickup from the last paragraph. The Buffaloes have dropped three of four and in each instance by large margins. With the losses, Colorado’s RPI plummeted to 35, which would be the highest to ever receive an at-large bid in the NCAA tournament history. Friday should provide a get-well game against Oregon before next week’s massive in-state rivalry game at Denver.
Virginia: The Cavaliers weren’t favored against No. 1 North Carolina, but the loss dropped them to 7-8 and on the precipice of tournament ineligibility. Simply, Virginia must win its commonwealth clash at Virginia Tech on Thursday to maintain any hope of at-large selection. A win over the Hokies would be two-fold — get UVA to .500 and possibly claim a spot from its rival, which has a weaker profile. Even then, the Cavs will have to win their first ACC tournament game to remain eligible.
Penn State: The Nittany Lions will rue their missed opportunity against Michigan where a win would have kept them tournament-eligible and put their resume ahead of the Wolverines. Instead, an 8-7 overtime loss has Penn State in the same boat as Virginia and Notre Dame — likely talented enough for an NCAA berth, but without the record to qualify. At 6-7 and with an RPI of 22, not all hope is lost. Saturday’s game at Rutgers is a must-win, as is the following Thursday’s contest against Johns Hopkins.
Records against the top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (41st or higher) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of Monday, April 18), not human polls.
Results from Monday and Tuesday games are not included.
First-place teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI.
For the 2022 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.
AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (15)
|
|
W-L |
RPI |
SOS |
T20 |
21-40 |
LAST6 |
NOTABLE LOSSES (40+) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
North Carolina |
14-0 |
1 |
5 |
6-0 |
4-0 |
6-0 |
— |
|
Northwestern |
13-2 |
3 |
2 |
5-2 |
5-0 |
6-0 |
— |
|
Denver |
13-1 |
7 |
28 |
3-1 |
3-0 |
6-0 |
— |
|
Florida |
10-4 |
8 |
17 |
1-4 |
2-0 |
6-0 |
— |
|
Princeton |
8-3 |
9 |
21 |
2-3 |
3-0 |
3-3 |
— |
|
Loyola |
13-1 |
13 |
24 |
2-1 |
5-0 |
5-1 |
— |
|
Jacksonville |
9-3 |
16 |
50 |
0-2 |
2-1 |
6-0 |
— |
|
USC |
11-3 |
18 |
31 |
2-1 |
3-2 |
5-1 |
— |
|
UMass |
14-2 |
24 |
51 |
0-2 |
3-0 |
6-0 |
— |
|
Towson |
6-7 |
36 |
30 |
0-3 |
1-3 |
4-2 |
Mount St. Mary's (48) |
|
Albany |
6-6 |
39 |
45 |
0-2 |
1-2 |
4-2 |
Cornell (40), Drexel (46) |
|
Niagara |
9-5 |
44 |
69 |
0-1 |
1-1 |
5-1 |
3 losses of 40+ |
|
Mercer |
10-3 |
45 |
92 |
0-3 |
0-0 |
5-1 |
— |
|
Bryant |
9-2 |
62 |
112 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
6-0 |
Brown (53), New Hampshire (68) |
|
Robert Morris |
8-6 |
82 |
103 |
0-1 |
0-1 |
4-2 |
4 losses of 40+ |
North Carolina is a rivalry win away from a perfect ACC regular season … Northwestern puts its nine-game winning streak on the line against fellow unbeaten Big Ten foe Maryland this weekend. ... Denver can lock up the top seed in the Big East tournament with a win over Villanova this week.
Princeton missed out on its opportunity to claim a national seed by falling to Maryland last week. ... Florida is likely on the outside of being a seed unless some teams ahead of the Gators should fall. Temple is up next in American play. ... Loyola thumped Army and American last week in preparation for Bucknell and Lafayette this week.
Jacksonville has a tough road game at Liberty on Saturday. The Flames have already beaten Virginia Tech on the road and took Duke to the wire in March. ... USC gets the Pac-12 nod this week by virtue of its superior RPI (18) as compared to fellow first-place teams Stanford (26) and Arizona State (27). ... UMass downed St. Joe’s by six to claim at least a share of the A-10 regular season title with a road game at Davidson remaining.
Towson continued its positive run with another one-goal win, this time at Hofstra. The Tigers are idle this week. ... Albany remains the America East’s only eligible unbeaten (in conference) team. ... Mercer has a tough two-game road trip to Winthrop and High Point this week.
Niagara’s OT win against Fairfield allows the Purple Eagles to hold on to the MAAC’s bid for now. ... Bryant will be favored in its final three conference games as it tries to get the top seed in its final NEC season. ... Robert Morris can clinch the MAC regular season title with a win over Central Michigan on Saturday.
AT-LARGE (23 TEAMS/14 SLOTS)
|
|
W-L |
RPI |
SOS |
T20 |
21-40 |
LAST6 |
NOTABLE LOSSES (40+) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Syracuse |
12-3 |
2 |
3 |
4-3 |
6-0 |
5-1 |
— |
|
Boston College |
13-2 |
4 |
7 |
3-2 |
5-0 |
5-1 |
— |
|
Maryland |
13-1 |
5 |
14 |
4-1 |
5-0 |
5-1 |
— |
|
Stony Brook |
10-2 |
6 |
25 |
2-2 |
2-0 |
6-0 |
— |
|
James Madison |
11-4 |
10 |
11 |
3-2 |
3-2 |
6-0 |
— |
|
Rutgers |
12-3 |
11 |
17 |
3-2 |
2-1 |
4-2 |
— |
|
Duke |
15-1 |
12 |
27 |
1-1 |
6-0 |
6-0 |
— |
|
UConn |
11-2 |
14 |
56 |
0-2 |
3-0 |
5-1 |
— |
|
Temple |
10-4 |
15 |
41 |
0-3 |
3-0 |
5-1 |
Delaware (66) |
|
Ohio State |
9-5 |
17 |
19 |
1-4 |
2-1 |
4-2 |
— |
|
Yale |
9-2 |
19 |
52 |
0-1 |
4-1 |
5-1 |
— |
|
Michigan |
10-5 |
20 |
9 |
0-5 |
5-0 |
2-4 |
— |
|
Johns Hopkins |
8-7 |
21 |
15 |
0-6 |
2-0 |
3-3 |
Navy (43) |
|
Stanford |
9-6 |
26 |
16 |
2-2 |
3-4 |
4-2 |
— |
|
Arizona State |
7-6 |
27 |
10 |
1-5 |
3-1 |
5-1 |
— |
|
Richmond |
13-3 |
29 |
59 |
0-1 |
3-2 |
5-1 |
— |
|
Vanderbilt |
8-6 |
30 |
26 |
0-3 |
2-3 |
3-3 |
— |
|
Virginia Tech |
9-7 |
31 |
13 |
1-5 |
1-1 |
2-4 |
Liberty (49) |
|
Colorado |
9-5 |
35 |
23 |
1-2 |
3-3 |
3-3 |
— |
|
Saint Joseph's |
10-6 |
38 |
28 |
0-2 |
1-4 |
4-2 |
— |
|
Cornell |
7-6 |
40 |
29 |
0-5 |
2-1 |
3-3 |
— |
|
Georgetown |
7-7 |
41 |
32 |
0-4 |
0-3 |
3-3 |
— |
|
Navy |
12-2 |
43 |
86 |
0-0 |
1-1 |
5-1 |
Georgetown (41) |
Syracuse holds on to the No. 4 seed for now, but Maryland could overtake the Orange after this weekend. ... Boston College has the No. 2 seed for now. (Sensing a theme?) The loss to Duke coupled with a potential Northwestern victory over Maryland could see the Eagles drop. ... Maryland was one of our featured winners last week. ...
Stony Brook saw its position fall one place after Maryland’s strong week. ... James Madison now has an eight-game winning streak with two to play. ... Rutgers hosts Penn State this week as the Scarlet Knights’ slim hosting chances continue to flicker. ...
Duke can lock down its claim to a seed with an upset over UNC. The Devils may earn that seed even with a loss. ... UConn’s RPI (14th) and SOS (56th) have dropped a little bit. The Huskies have beaten only one bona fide NCAA tournament team this season (UMass). ... Temple needs a win over Florida more than anyone else on the bubble. The Owls have a nice RPI (No. 15), but not a win against a team in the current field. ...
Ohio State has solid victories over Michigan and Penn State and for a half seemed to have a chance to steal one from Maryland. Hopkins and Rutgers remain as potential profile builders. ... Yale is our third team out this week but has three prime opportunities to nab important victories beginning with Wednesday’s home game against UConn. ... Michigan passed its first test by beating Penn State. The Wolverines are off this week. ...
Johns Hopkins has a high RPI (21), but no wins over a tournament-caliber squad. Yet. The Blue Jays could get one over Ohio State on Saturday. ... Stanford split in its road series at ASU and USC to bring its record to 8-2 in its last 10 games. ... Arizona State could all but button up its first NCAA bid by beating USC on Friday at home. ...
Richmond remains our first team out of the field this week. The Spiders have the Stanford victory to their name, but a close call to JMU and a decisive loss to UMass keep them out. ... Vanderbilt fought hard against Florida but will likely have to turn its attention to the American tournament for its path to the NCAA tournament. ... Virginia Tech is listed as our second-to-last- team in this week’s field on the strength of wins over JMU and Notre Dame. The loss to Liberty is its major blemish and the Hokies need to get by Virginia next. ...
Colorado will give the committee fits if it remains 35th in the RPI as it does today. It’s tough to ignore that large of a number while the Buffaloes have wins over Ohio State and Stanford. ... Saint Joseph’s couldn’t muster the upset in Amherst and will have to go through the A-10 tournament. ... Cornell has dropped three of four but wins over Albany and Penn aren’t bad consolation prizes. ...
Georgetown’s RPI has risen to 41 this week despite the close loss to Denver. The Hoyas' candidacy could be interesting should they beat Marquette this week and find a way against UConn after that. ... Navy is playing well against Patriot League competition (6-0) and will likely need to win its final three conference contests to overcome its poor RPI (43) and sniff an at-large bid
PROJECTED BRACKET
Bracketing procedures:
-
The committee seeds the top eight teams to host first- and second-round games. The top three seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed with geographical considerations (e.g., teams will drive vs. fly), while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
-
Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.
-
Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.
-
It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
Chapel Hill, N.C.
USC vs. Virginia Tech
Winner plays at (1) North Carolina (ACC)
Durham, N.C.
Towson (CAA) at (8) Duke
James Madison vs. Jacksonville (ASUN)
Syracuse, N.Y.
Niagara (MAAC) at (4) Syracuse
Princeton (IVY) vs. Albany (AMERICA EAST)
College Park, Md.
Robert Morris (MAC) at (5) Maryland
Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. Ohio State
Newton, Mass.
Arizona State vs. UConn
Winner plays at (2) Boston College
Denver
Mercer (BIG SOUTH) at (7) Denver (BIG EAST)
Florida (AMERICAN) vs. Colorado
Stony Brook, N.Y.
Bryant (NEC) at (6) Stony Brook
Rutgers vs. UMass (A-10)
Evanston, Ill.
Stanford vs. Michigan
Winner plays at (3) Northwestern (BIG TEN)
Last Four In: UConn, Michigan, Virginia Tech, Colorado
First Four Out: Richmond, Temple, Yale, Johns Hopkins
Next Four Out: Vanderbilt, Saint Joseph’s, Navy, Cornell
Moving In: Virginia Tech
Moving Out: Virginia
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (5), Big Ten (5), Pac-12 (4), America East (2), Big East (2), CAA (2)