The 2018 regular season is entering a pivotal stretch and there are plenty of teams on the bubble that could bolster their resume before Selection Sunday. This year’s selection committee will have a more difficult time than last season’s because parity has allowed a higher number of teams to earn more significant wins.

There will be a volatility on the bubble as conference tournament season approaches. Let’s take a look at four at-large teams teetering on the bubble. As a reminder, these projections are done as if the tournament started today.

DARTMOUTH

At No. 13 in the RPI, the Big Green have just one significant victory so far, a 15-12 away triumph against Princeton. Dartmouth has held serve on all its opponents rated over 30, thus avoiding the significant loss category. In all, Dartmouth is looking for its first NCAA Tournament bid since 2013 and has a few more opportunities to add to its resume with games against Boston College (today), Cornell (Saturday) and possible bubble matchups with Yale and Brown.

DENVER

Riding the strength of Top 20 RPI wins over Colorado and Stanford, the Pioneers can improve its credentials in conference play as all four regular-season games feature opponents with .500 or better records. The main thing holding Denver back is a 10-9 loss at Temple. That blemish, plus a missed opportunity against Georgetown, could be what keeps the Pios out in 2018.

DUKE

The roller coaster team of 2018, the Blue Devils have ranged from taking down No. 9 RPI squad Northwestern to falling to High Point on Monday night. The loss to HPU isn’t major, as the Panthers would be an at-large candidate (third team out, for what it’s worth). At 7-6, Duke must avoid last year’s fate where it had the credentials to get in, but not the minimum .500 record for inclusion. 

PRINCETON

Princeton is living off its one-goal win at Penn State and will rue last night’s heartbreaking loss to Maryland. A win over the Terps would have solidified the Tigers’ position if the automatic bid doesn’t come to fruition. Princeton has notable chances to pad the resume in games against Yale, Cornell and Penn.

Notes: Records against the Top 10, Top 11-20, Top 21-30 and losses to teams outside the Top 30 are based on performance against the current NCAA RPI rankings (as of Monday, April 9), not human polls. First-place teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. Ties go to the highest rated team in the RPI.

Automatic Qualifiers (14)

	RPI	SOS	T10	T11-20	T21-30	31+ L
Maryland	1	4	3-1	4-0	5-0	—
Boston College	3	17	1-0	2-0	5-0	—
James Madison	4	7	1-1	2-0	2-0	—
Florida	5	2	1-2	4-1	0-0	—
Penn	6	11	0-2	3-0	3-0	—
Stony Brook	8	41	2-0	1-0	3-0	—
Loyola	10	8	1-1	3-2	1-0	—
Colorado	14	27	0-2	2-0	1-2	—
High Point	24	51	0-2	0-0	2-0	—
Massachusetts	27	46	0-1	1-0	0-1	Yale (31)
Jacksonville	42	88	0-1	0-1	0-1	—
Marist	49	68	0-0	0-0	0-2	Yale (31), La Salle (72)
Wagner	71	97	0-0	0-0	0-0	Saint Joseph's (35), Hofstra (51), Iona (74), UMass Lowell (88)
Furman	80	62	0-0	0-1	0-1	Jacksonville (42), Vanderbilt (43), Davidson (47), San Diego State (66), Iona (74), Campbell (76)

Maryland is the top seed because of its superior RPI and high strength-of-schedule. The Terps have the most Top 10 wins (3) and Top 20 wins (7). … Boston College has rolled along with few obstacles, having already matched their program high for conference wins (5) with two games to play. A win over Virginia Tech this weekend sews up the ACC regular season title. … JMU’s profile is worthy of a Top 4 team with the lone loss coming to No. 1 Maryland. …

Florida has the second most Top 20 wins in the nation (5). … Penn won the battle of unbeaten Ivies against Dartmouth to take sole possession of first. … One of the final two undefeated teams remaining, Stony Brook is crushing its America East competition and its RPI is taking a hit, dropping to No. 8. Nevertheless, SBU’s profile will keep them in the Top 3 unless they lose. … Loyola bounced back from its loss to Syracuse with a comeback victory over Navy to take the Patriot League lead. …

Colorado gets the nod over Stanford for the Pac-12’s projected automatic bid due to its superior RPI and head-to-head meeting earlier this year. … High Point has more wins against ACC foes (2) than Syracuse and Louisville combined (0). The Panthers are up to No. 24 in the RPI. … UMass is tied atop the A-10 with Richmond, but is one spot ahead of the Spiders in this week’s RPI release. The Minutewomen have a marginal at-large profile with an early win over Dartmouth as its highlight. … Jacksonville is the lone unbeaten in the Atlantic Sun and is the heavy favorite to win the league again. …

Marist eked out an 8-7 win over Quinnipiac to remain the last undefeated MAAC squad. They travel to league favorite Canisus today. … NEC play only began recently and Wagner’s 2-0 start is good enough for the projected automatic bid. … The Southern Conference has Furman and Central Michigan on the board without a loss and Furman’s higher RPI (80) trumps the Chippewas (93). It will be mighty difficult for the SoCon winner to avoid the play-in game.

At-Large Bids (19 teams/13 spots)

	RPI	SOS	T5W	T10	T20	26+ L
North Carolina	2	1	2-3	2-0	2-0	—
Towson	7	16	1-2	2-0	0-0	—
Northwestern	9	12	1-2	3-0	2-1	—
Virginia	11	6	0-4	1-1	4-0	—
Navy	12	24	0-3	0-0	0-0	—
Dartmouth	13	23	0-1	1-1	0-0	—
Georgetown	15	28	0-4	1-0	1-0	—
Stanford	16	37	0-1	0-1	3-1	—
Johns Hopkins	17	14	1-3	0-2	0-0	—
Penn State	18	31	0-3	2-0	1-1	—
Syracuse	19	15	2-2	0-2	2-2	—
Virginia Tech	20	35	0-2	1-1	3-1	—
USC	21	3	0-3	2-3	0-1	—
Cornell	22	5	0-2	0-2	1-1	—
Princeton	23	20	0-1	1-3	1-0	—
Duke	25	18	1-2	1-3	1-0	—
Denver	26	26	0-1	2-2	0-0	Temple (39)
Notre Dame	30	19	0-3	1-2	0-2	—
Yale	31	29	0-2	0-0	2-1	Canisius (58), Columbia (63)

North Carolina is firmly in with six Top 30 wins including the lone victory over No. 1 Maryland. … Towson is fighting for one of the eight coveted hosting spots on opening weekend. Its victory over Florida will go a long way come Selection Sunday. … Northwestern is 4-2 against RPI Top 20 teams and has an important upcoming matchup with Penn State. …

Virginia fell to Penn State at home last weekend and is on a three-game skid heading into tonight’s game at Navy, who is in desperate need of a quality victory. The Mids have a resume light on good wins, putting them on the wrong side of the bubble. … Dartmouth is hanging its at-large hopes on the Princeton victory. This week’s games against BC and Cornell offer two more resume-building chances. …

Georgetown has struck out against Top 10 competition (0-4) but is 2-0 in its other notable Top 30 matchups. … Stanford has bounced back well from its 0-2 start to win 11 of its last 12 games. … Johns Hopkins is living off its season-opening win over Loyola, but has gone 0-5 against Top 20 competition since with four one-goal losses. …

Penn State got a season-defining win at Virginia heading into a stretch that includes Northwestern and Maryland. … Syracuse is in a unique situation because the Orange are winless in ACC play, but are one of two at-large teams to have a pair of Top 10 victories. A win over UNC or BC could catapult Syracuse into hosting duties. … Virginia Tech is off to its best start in ACC history. BC and Virginia remain on its slate. …

Southern California has dropped four of its last five games, including its last three to Stanford, Colorado and Oregon in succession to fall onto the bubble. … Cornell suffered a crushing loss to Brown that may contribute to the Big Red’s omission from the field in a few weeks. … Princeton’s missed opportunity against Maryland leaves the Tigers with their backs against the wall. … Duke has a Top 10 and two Top 20 wins, but it might need more to feel secure about its tourney hopes. …

Denver has two good wins against Pac-12 squads Stanford and Colorado, but the Temple loss will remain tough to overcome with none of their fellow bubble teams featuring such a blemish. … Notre Dame is just 1-7 against Top 30 teams and is just hanging on the bubble. … Yale started the season strong, but losses to Canisius (RPI No. 58) and Columbia (RPI No. 63) put the Bulldogs in must-win situations against Princeton, Dartmouth and Penn. Yale likely needs two just to get into the at-large picture and the Ivy League Tournament.

PROJECTED BRACKET 

Bracketing Procedures:

• The committee seeds the Top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.

• Conference matchups are to be avoided in the first round.

• This year, there are 14 automatic qualifiers, which means the two weakest resumes are assigned to a play-in game on Tuesday, May 8 or Wednesday, May 9, on the campus of the stronger team. No at-large teams will be selected for the play-in games. That play-in winner will travel to the No. 7 seed.

• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.

• The seven and eight seeds host two games in the first round leading to a second-round game at its home site, while the top six seeds get byes into the second round.

College Park, Md.

Georgetown vs. Johns Hopkins
Winner plays at (1) Maryland (BIG TEN)

Evanston, Ill.

USC at (8) Northwestern
Syracuse vs. Stanford

Harrisonburg, Va.

Penn (IVY) vs. Virginia Tech
Winner plays at (4) James Madison (CAA)

Chapel Hill, N.C.

Virginia vs. High Point (BIG SOUTH)
Winner plays at (5) North Carolina

Stony Brook, N.Y.

Penn State vs. Marist (MAAC)
Winner plays at (2) Stony Brook

Towson, Md.

Furman (SOUTHERN)/Wagner (NEC) at (7) Towson
Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. Duke

Chestnut Hill, Mass.

Dartmouth vs. Massachusetts (ATLANTIC 10)
Winner play at (3) Boston College

Gainesville, Fla.

Colorado (PAC-12) vs. Jacksonville (ATLANTIC SUN)
Winner plays at (6) Florida (BIG EAST)

Last Four In: Johns Hopkins, USC, Duke, Dartmouth
Last Four Out: Princeton, Denver, Notre Dame, Navy
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (6), Big Ten (4), Pac-12 (3), Big East (2), CAA (2), Ivy League (2)