Automatic Qualifiers (9)
|
RPI
|
SOS
|
T5W
|
T10
|
T20
|
26+ L
|
Maryland |
1 |
1 |
3-1 |
6-2 |
8-3 |
— |
Albany |
3 |
23 |
0-2 |
0-2 |
4-2 |
— |
Towson |
11 |
19 |
0-0 |
1-2 |
4-3 |
Fairfield (39) |
Yale |
13 |
25 |
0-2 |
0-2 |
1-3 |
Bryant (35), Harvard (37) |
Loyola |
17 |
32 |
0-0 |
0-2 |
1-3 |
Virginia (27), Bucknell (53) |
Marquette |
21 |
11 |
0-1 |
1-4 |
1-5 |
Providence (30) |
Air Force |
24 |
43 |
0-0 |
1-1 |
1-2 |
Marist (38), Furman (41) |
Bryant |
35 |
54 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
1-1 |
Providence (30), Hobart (33), Drexel (30), Bucknell (53), Mount St. Mary's (57) |
Monmouth |
36 |
66 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
1-1 |
Delaware (40), Saint Joseph's (51) |
Maryland owns the top RPI, the top strength of schedule, the most top-five wins, the most top-10 wins and the most top-20 wins. Choosing the No. 1 seed is the easiest task for this year’s committee. … Not to rain on Albany’s well-deserved parade, but only three of its 14 victories came against teams with winning records and owns just one victory over the projected field (Yale). The Great Danes are getting seeded, but the committee could bump them lower than this projection.
Towson put both Drexel and Massachusetts in 60-minute chokeholds in the Colonial tournament. The Tigers might be the least flashy team in the field, but they play to their identity about as well as anyone. They’ll be a tough out, even as they hit the road. … Patriot League champion Loyola’s two victories over Army look better after the Black Knights edged Notre Dame. Is it enough to avoid a trip to the Carrier Dome? It should be. …
Geographically, it would make sense for Ivy winner Yale to end up making the bus trip to Syracuse, but its 11th-hour RPI bump might get it placed at Albany or Penn State instead … Of the 18 current programs added to the Division I ranks since 2005, Marquette is only the second to appear in multiple NCAA tournaments (along with Bryant) and the first start-up program to do so. …
The committee could opt to save money and send Air Force up to Denver, but at significant cost to bracket integrity. In this case, look for the Falcons to fly east. … Bryant will make its fourth Division I tournament appearance in the last five years. Like in 2015, when it met Marist in a play-in game, the Bulldogs will face the Metro Atlantic champion. …
Monmouth is the only first-time tournament team this season thanks to its Metro Atlantic title. The Hawks, who debuted three years ago, are nearly certain certain to face Bryant on Wednesday.
At-Large Bids (12 teams/8 slots)
|
RPI
|
SOS
|
T5W
|
T10
|
T20
|
26+ L
|
Syracuse |
2 |
7 |
2-0 |
5-1 |
6-2 |
— |
Notre Dame |
4 |
4 |
1-1 |
4-4 |
4-5 |
— |
Penn State |
5 |
12 |
0-2 |
1-3 |
3-3 |
— |
Ohio State |
6 |
2 |
1-3 |
4-3 |
6-4 |
— |
Johns Hopkins |
7 |
5 |
1-2 |
2-4 |
4-5 |
Princeton (28) |
Denver |
8 |
9 |
1-0 |
2-2 |
4-2 |
— |
Duke |
9 |
6 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
4-3 |
— |
North Carolina |
10 |
3 |
2-3 |
3-5 |
3-6 |
— |
Rutgers |
12 |
15 |
0-2 |
1-3 |
2-3 |
Delaware (40) |
Army |
14 |
20 |
2-0 |
2-0 |
5-3 |
Navy (46) |
Hofstra |
15 |
33 |
0-0 |
1-0 |
2-2 |
Drexel (34) |
If Maryland at No. 1 is the easiest decision for this year’s committee, Syracuse at No. 2 shouldn’t be far behind. Whether the Orange, with its penchant for playing to its competition, can live up to that seeding is a far dicier question. … The numbers still favor Notre Dame, which is unlikely to fall below a No. 4 seed when the committee renders its verdict today. …
Mentioned this the other day with regard to Albany, but it holds true for Penn State: Since at least 2009, no team in the top six of the RPI has been sent on the road for a first-round game. The Nittany Lions should stay in Happy Valley for a postseason game for the second time in their history. … You can convincingly argue Ohio State as high as a No. 3 seed. The guess here is the Buckeyes get the No. 4 slot. …
Since 2009, only two teams in the top eight in both RPI and strength of schedule did not procure a first-round home game (2010 Johns Hopkins and 2014 Cornell). Johns Hopkins could be sent on the road, but there isn’t a great argument for it. … It’s looking like Denver will get a rematch with either Duke or North Carolina in the first round. …
North Carolina looks like a better candidate for a road game than Denver even with a head-to-head victory. … Duke extinguished any doubt about its tournament chances early on this afternoon, thrashing Boston University. The Blue Devils are most likely to see Denver or Hopkins in the first round … Put simply, the loss to Delaware is the biggest difference between Rutgers and Duke. …
Who do you bump out of the field to include Army? All eight projected at-large teams have better RPI figures and superior schedule strengths, and none of them have a loss anywhere near as damaging as the Black Knights’ stumble at Navy. The numbers say Joe Alberici’s bunch just misses out. … Hofstra just doesn’t have the resume to get in this year. … Same goes for Boston University, even if it beats Duke today.
Projected Bracket
A few reminders on bracket construction:
-
The committee seeds the top eight teams and then divvies up the unseeded teams based on geography in an attempt to limit air travel.
-
Conference rematches are to be avoided in the first round.
-
Quarterfinal host schools (in this year’s case, Hofstra) are funneled into their own site.
-
Of the nine automatic qualifiers, the two with the weakest profiles are assigned to the preliminary round game the Wednesday before the first round. At-large teams are not selected for play-in games.
Newark, Del.
(1) BIG TEN/Maryland vs. NORTHEAST/Bryant-MAAC/Monmouth
(8) Johns Hopkins vs. Duke
Hempstead, N.Y.
(5) AMERICA EAST/Albany vs. PATRIOT/Loyola
(4) Ohio State vs. SOUTHERN/Air Force
Newark, Del.
(3) Notre Dame vs. BIG EAST/Marquette
(6) Penn State vs. CAA/Towson
Hempstead, N.Y.
(7) Denver vs. North Carolina
(2) Syracuse vs. IVY/Yale
Last three in: Denver, Duke, North Carolina
First three out: Army, Rutgers, Hofstra
Multi-bid conferences: ACC (4), Big Ten (4), Big East (2)