There will be no unbeaten teams in this year’s NCAA tournament. Northwestern’s dominating 16-11 win in the Big Ten championship game secured its first win over Maryland since 2012, which coincides with Northwestern’s last national championship.
The question now is, will it affect anything?
According to the selection committee, Maryland’s profile was already superior to Boston College’s nearly two weeks ago. Now both have losses to top four RPI teams that they already beat. It stands to reason the Terps will maintain its No. 1 seed and BC will slot in at No. 2.
Although Northwestern has a win over a team that UNC and Syracuse lost to earlier this season, both those teams defeated the Wildcats. Additionally, Carolina and Syracuse still carry more top 10 wins than Northwestern. We project UNC, Syracuse and Northwestern to go 3-through-5 on the seed line.
The final three seeds will go to Loyola, Princeton and Virginia, but not in that order. Virginia beat Princeton and Loyola, which should give the Cavs an edge. Nevertheless, Princeton has seven top 20 wins, while Virginia has just five. Princeton’s black mark is a loss to 48th-ranked Brown. It will be tight, but expect UVa to be the sixth seed followed by Princeton and Loyola.
The top teams left out of a seed line will be Michigan and Notre Dame. The Wolverines were unable to capture a top 10 win, while Notre Dame picked up two such victories. The Fighting Irish’s relatively poor RPI (15th) and strength-of-schedule (18th) won’t be enough to get it into the top eight. Geography will likely bring these two teams together in Evanston, which is a monster regional.
Finally, the bubble. Earlier this morning we projected Dartmouth, Johns Hopkins and Stanford over Duke, and that appears to be the same still today. Here are their profiles for comparison.
|
|
Dartmouth |
Hopkins |
Stanford |
Duke |
|---|---|---|---|---|
RPI |
17 | 20 | 24 | 26 |
SOS |
19 | 14 | 35 | 9 |
SIG WINS |
Penn (13) | Loyola (11) Georgetown (25) |
Stony Brook (19) Colorado (21) |
Notre Dame (15) |
SIG LOSSES |
None | None | None | None |
COMMON OPP |
2-3 vs. Hopkins 0-0 vs. Stanford 1-3 vs. Duke |
1-3 vs. Dartmouth 0-1 vs. Stanford 0-1 vs. Duke |
0-0 vs. Dartmouth 1-0 vs. Hopkins 0-0 vs. Duke |
0-3 vs. Dartmouth 0-0 vs. Stanford 0-1 vs. Hopkins |
In the past, the committee uses the RPI to figure out which teams are worthy of comparison and then figure out if those teams have beaten bona fide tournament squads. Both Johns Hopkins and Stanford have done that, taking two wins against tournament competition.
Duke and Dartmouth have just one such win and both are against high level competition (Notre Dame and Penn, respectively). Dartmouth gets the edge on RPI and has a better record against common opponents, which should be enough to get the Big Green in.
Notes:
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Records against the top 10, top 11-20, top 21-30 and losses to teams outside the top 30 are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of Saturday night, per LaxBytes replica), not human polls.
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Results from Monday and Tuesday’s games are not included.
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First-place teams are listed as automatic qualifiers.
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In the events of a tie, the projected AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI.
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With another conference added, there are now 15 automatic qualifiers, which will necessitate two play-in games for the 26-team field.
Automatic Qualifiers (15)
|
|
RPI |
SOS |
T10 |
T11-20 |
T21-30 |
31+ L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 3 | 4 | 5-2 | 1-1 | 3-0 | — |
| Northwestern | 4 | 6 | 3-4 | 5-0 | 1-0 | — |
| Princeton | 7 | 17 | 1-2 | 6-0 | 0-0 | Brown (48) |
| Florida | 8 | 11 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 3-0 | — |
| USC | 9 | 27 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 5-1 | — |
| Loyola | 11 | 12 | 1-3 | 3-1 | 1-0 | — |
| James Madison | 16 | 34 | 0-3 | 1-0 | 3-0 | — |
| Stony Brook | 19 | 23 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 1-1 | — |
| Richmond | 23 | 57 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-1 | George Mason (47) |
| Georgetown | 25 | 15 | 0-2 | 1-5 | 0-0 | Marquette (55) |
| High Point | 27 | 44 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | — |
| Jacksonville | 29 | 74 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-0 | Oregon (81) |
| Fairfield | 33 | 89 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | Boston U. (39) |
| Wagner | 36 | 87 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | Mount St. Mary's (35), Vanderbilt (41) |
| Mercer | 89 | 106 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 8 Losses of 31+ |
North Carolina has five top-10 wins and is poised to be the No. 3 seed … Northwestern is rolling having taken down Maryland for the Big Ten auto bid. The Wildcats look to be a title contender … Princeton is assured of hosting opening weekend. Whether that means a first-round bye remains to be seen.
Florida will by flying for its first-round game … USC is in a similar spot as Florida, high RPI, but few top-tier wins … Loyola has been very good this year and carries wins over Florida, Navy (twice) and Georgetown.
James Madison clinched the CAA in a win over Hofstra. The Dukes should be traveling to either North Carolina, Virginia or Maryland … Stony Brook will be on the road to either Boston College, Syracuse or Princeton. There’s an outside chance the Seawolves could be sent to Baltimore … Richmond’s profile is probably good enough to avoid a play-in game this week.
Georgetown’s shock inclusion in the tournament provides the Big East with two participants … High Point looks poised to be sent to Chapel Hill … Jacksonville will likely be hosting Mercer in a play-in game this week … Fairfield and Wagner seem destined to face-off this week with the winner heading to the No. 8 seed.
At-Large Bids (17 teams/13 spots)
|
|
RPI |
SOS |
T10 |
T11-20 |
T21-30 |
31+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maryland | 1 | 5 | 7-1 | 5-0 | 2-0 | — |
| Boston College | 2 | 2 | 6-1 | 3-0 | 3-0 | — |
| Syracuse | 5 | 1 | 4-4 | 2-0 | 1-0 | — |
| Virginia | 6 | 3 | 1-5 | 4-1 | 2-0 | — |
| Michigan | 10 | 16 | 0-3 | 4-0 | 1-0 | — |
| Navy | 12 | 25 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 1-0 | — |
| Penn | 13 | 24 | 0-4 | 2-1 | 2-0 | — |
| Denver | 14 | 36 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 3-2 | Virginia Tech (32) |
| Notre Dame | 15 | 18 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-1 | — |
| Dartmouth | 17 | 19 | 0-4 | 1-1 | 2-0 | — |
| Johns Hopkins | 20 | 14 | 0-3 | 1-3 | 2-1 | — |
| Colorado | 21 | 13 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-1 | — |
| UMass | 22 | 50 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-1 | Harvard (44) |
| Stanford | 24 | 35 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1-2 | — |
| Duke | 26 | 9 | 0-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | — |
| Hofstra | 29 | 31 | 0-2 | 0-4 | 1-0 | Towson (37) |
| Liberty | 30 | 66 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-4 | — |
Maryland and Boston College are surprise entries in the at-large field, both losing their respective conference championship games. They remain Nos. 1 and 2 … Syracuse should hold steady at the No. 4 seed in large part because of its win over Northwestern.
Virginia will be an interesting test case for the committee. It has head-to-head wins over Princeton and Loyola in the race for the final first-round bye … Michigan’s record-breaking season will see the Wolverines in the NCAA tournament for the first time … Navy will likely be sent back to Loyola or Maryland in the first two rounds with outside looks at Virginia or Princeton.
Penn had three wins over NCAA teams this year (Dartmouth, Johns Hopkins and Georgetown) … Denver will be jet setting on opening weekend, possibly to Boston College … Notre Dame has two high-profile wins, but a trip to Northwestern to face Michigan seems likely.
Dartmouth is squarely on the bubble with just one win over an NCAA tournament team … Johns Hopkins seemingly sweats the bubble every year. With wins over Loyola and Georgetown, the Blue Jays should be in … Without Colorado’s win over USC, one wonders how close to the bubble the Buffaloes would be (they’d likely be out).
UMass has a quality win (Richmond), but a bad loss, too (Harvard), and that will keep the Minutewomen out … Stanford’s wins over Stony Brook and Colorado should get the Cardinal in … Hofstra never contended in a must-win game against JMU. The Pride had a significant win over High Point, but its loss to Towson wiped that out.
Duke beat VCU on senior day today, but its lone quality win (Notre Dame) shouldn’t be enough to sway the committee. The Blue Devils’ RPI is too low and they certainly had enough chances (eight losses to top 20 teams) to gain another signature win … Liberty gets consideration as a top 30 team in the RPI, but there’s no major win to support its at-large chances.
PROJECTED BRACKET
Bracketing procedures:
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The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
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Conference matchups are to be avoided in the first round.
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This year there are 15 automatic qualifiers, which means the four weakest resumes are assigned to play-in games on Tuesday, May 7 or Wednesday, May 8, on the campus of the stronger team. No at-large teams will be selected for the play-in games. Those play-in winners will travel to the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds.
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It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
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The seven and eight seeds host two games in the first round leading to a second-round game at its home site, while the top six seeds get byes into the second round.
Play-in Games
Mercer/SOUTHERN at Jacksonville/ATLANTIC SUN
Fairfield/MAAC at Wagner/NORTHEAST
College Park, Md.
Colorado vs. Johns Hopkins
Colorado/Johns Hopkins at (1) Maryland/BIG TEN
Baltimore, Md.
Fairfield/Wagner at (8) Loyola/PATRIOT
Navy vs. High Point/BIG SOUTH
Syracuse, N.Y.
Penn vs. Stanford
Penn/Stanford at (4) Syracuse
Evanston, Ill.
Michigan vs. Notre Dame
Michigan/Notre Dame at (5) Northwestern
Newton, Mass.
Denver vs. Dartmouth
Denver/Dartmouth at (2) Boston College
Princeton, N.J.
Mercer/Jacksonville at (7) Princeton/IVY
Stony Brook/AMERICA EAST vs. Richmond (Atlantic 10)
Chapel Hill, N.C.
USC (Pac-12) vs. James Madison/CAA
USC/James Madison at (3) North Carolina/ATLANTIC COAST
Charlottesville, Va.
Florida/AMERICAN vs. Georgetown/BIG EAST
Florida/Georgetown at (6) Virginia
Last four in: Colorado, Johns Hopkins, Stanford, Dartmouth
First four out: Duke, UMass, Hofstra, Liberty
Moving in: None
Moving out: None
Multi-bid conferences: ACC (5), Big Ten (4), Ivy League (3), Pac-12 (3), Big East (2), Patriot (2)