Less than two weeks out from Selection Sunday, there’s a clear delineation between bubble teams who are projected in the field and those who aren’t.
The precedent has been set in the past that teams who show the capability to beat tournament-worthy squads will gain entry as at-large bids. Most recently, it was Louisville in 2017 which earned a bid with an RPI of 32, while squads with better RPI rankings were left out.
This week, the bubble ends with Duke being the first team left out because the Blue Devils don’t have a significant win on their résumé. Duke, RPI No. 28, is 0-7 against teams in the RPI top 20, with its best win against Virginia Tech (No. 31).
One spot up is Johns Hopkins (RPI No. 19), which has lost four of its last six games. The Blue Jays are currently our last team in the field because it has a quality win — Loyola (RPI No. 11). Helping the Jays this week is that an early-season loss to High Point is no longer counted as a significant loss because the Panthers crept into the top 30 in the RPI this week.
The bubble picture was made a bit murky by one of the teams that defeated Hopkins last week: Penn State. Because these projections are based on the RPI released Tuesday morning, Penn State is in.
The Nittany Lions moved to an NCAA tournament-eligible 7-7 and in turn gained its best win to date. Nevertheless, Penn State lost to Stony Brook Tuesday evening, which means it has to beat Rutgers on Saturday or have Maryland beat Hopkins just to gain a spot in the Big Ten semifinals. There, the Nittany Lions would need to then beat Maryland to gain at-large status.
Penn State is our second-to-last team in the field and replaced Virginia Tech, which fell out because the Hokies are no longer eligible. At 8-9 and with an RPI of 31, Virginia Tech now stares at the prospect of needing two wins in the ACC tournament to earn consideration. The task is tall with North Carolina waiting in the quarterfinals Wednesday.
Below Duke are Georgetown, Hofstra and Richmond, who are all teams that will need to rely on their respective conference’s automatic bid to reach the postseason.
In the end, Penn State’s tough situation is good news for Duke. A win over Notre Dame would give the Blue Devils their significant victory, but a weak bubble may get them in regardless
Notes:
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Records against the top 10, top 11-20, top 21-30 and losses to teams outside the top 30 are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of Monday, April 22), not human polls.
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Results from Monday and Tuesday’s games are not included.
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First-place teams are listed as automatic qualifiers.
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In the events of a tie, the projected AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI.
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With another conference added, there are now 15 automatic qualifiers, which will necessitate two play-in games for the 26-team field.
Automatic Qualifiers (15)
|
|
RPI |
SOS |
T10 |
T11-20 |
T21-30 |
31+ L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maryland | 1 | 3 | 6-0 | 4-0 | 2-0 | — |
| Boston College | 2 | 5 | 6-0 | 2-0 | 3-0 | — |
| Princeton | 7 | 13 | 0-2 | 5-0 | 1-0 | Brown (49) |
| USC | 9 | 23 | 0-1 | 2-0 | 2-2 | — |
| Loyola | 11 | 12 | 0-3 | 3-1 | 2-0 | — |
| Florida | 12 | 9 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 3-0 | — |
| Denver | 15 | 36 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 3-0 | Virginia Tech (31) |
| James Madison | 18 | 26 | 0-3 | 1-0 | 2-0 | — |
| Stony Brook | 21 | 24 | 1-1 | 1-3 | 1-0 | — |
| UMass | 22 | 53 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 | Harvard (40) |
| High Point | 29 | 40 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1-1 | — |
| Jacksonville | 32 | 77 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 | Oreogn (85) |
| Mount St. Mary's | 35 | 105 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | Cal (53) |
| Fairfield | 38 | 80 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | Boston University (34) |
| Furman | 72 | 87 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-2 | Jacksonville (32), Vanderbilt (33), Davidson (73), Detroit Mercy (95) |
Maryland moves to the top seed with a shift in the numbers. The Terrapins card 10 wins against the RPI top 20 … Boston College moved through the ACC undefeated and could reclaim the top spot with the ACC tournament providing additional high-level wins … Princeton holds the top spot in the Ivy League by virtue of its win over Dartmouth earlier this season. Aside from the surprising loss to Brown, the Tigers have a strong profile and can claim a top eight seed.
USC clinched the top seed in the Pac-12 tournament, which begins Thursday in Eugene … Loyola is atop the Patriot League and on the edge of the top eight seeds … Florida faces fellow first-place squad Cincinnati in the teams’ American Athletic Conference finale on Saturday.
Denver, firmly in the field, can cap a perfect Big East regular season Friday at Villanova … James Madison clinched the CAA regular season title and is off this week before hosting the CAA tournament next Friday … Stony Brook has been rolling. While Tuesday’s win at PSU won’t show up in this week’s report, it sets the stage for the Seawolves to creep into hosting duty discussions in the future.
UMass is the top seed in the Atlantic 10 tournament, which starts Thursday at George Mason. The Minutewomen’s résumé will not be strong enough as an at-large should they stumble … High Point’s RPI jumped nine spots this week to enter the top 30 … Jacksonville has won 12 of the past 13 games and can clinch the Atlantic Sun’s top seed with a win at Stetson.
Mount St. Mary’s is on a 10-game winning streak heading into this weekend’s games against Sacred Heart and LIU Brooklyn … Fairfield, who has five one-goal wins in conference play, gets a week off before hosting the MAAC tournament next week … Furman earns the SoCon spot this week with a superior RPI (72) over fellow first-place squads Mercer (90) and Detroit Mercy (95).
At-Large Bids (19 teams/13 spots)
|
|
RPI |
SOS |
T10 |
T11-20 |
T21-30 |
31+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 3 | 6 | 3-3 | 2-0 | 2-0 | — |
| Virginia | 4 | 1 | 1-5 | 4-0 | 2-0 | — |
| Syracuse | 5 | 4 | 3-3 | 2-0 | 2-0 | — |
| Northwestern | 6 | 2 | 2-4 | 4-0 | 1-0 | — |
| Michigan | 8 | 22 | 0-2 | 4-0 | 1-0 | — |
| Notre Dame | 10 | 14 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-0 | — |
| Navy | 13 | 27 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 2-0 | — |
| Dartmouth | 14 | 21 | 0-4 | 1-0 | 2-0 | — |
| Penn State | 16 | 10 | 0-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | — |
| Penn | 17 | 25 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 2-0 | — |
| Johns Hopkins | 19 | 16 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | — |
| Stanford | 20 | 35 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-1 | — |
| Colorado | 23 | 17 | 1-2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | — |
| Georgetown | 24 | 17 | 0-2 | 0-5 | 0-0 | — |
| Liberty | 25 | 71 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | Jacksonville (32) |
| Hofstra | 26 | 29 | 0-2 | 0-3 | 1-0 | Towson (39) |
| Richmond | 27 | 59 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | George Mason (43) |
| Duke | 28 | 11 | 0-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | — |
| Army | 30 | 63 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Villanova (36), American (79) |
North Carolina blitzed Duke this weekend to secure the No. 2 seed in the ACC tournament … Virginia, the No. 4 RPI team, is the No. 5 team in the ACC. The Cavaliers face Syracuse in the ACC tournament quarterfinals today.
Northwestern earned two top-10 RPI wins last week by downing Michigan and Notre Dame. The Wildcats and Fighting Irish are in line to host the first weekend in the NCAA tournament, while the Wolverines will likely travel to one of those two sites.
Navy is the second seed in this week’s Patriot League tournament, where the Mids should do their best to reach the final to lock up an at-large bid … Dartmouth’s win at Penn secures the Big Green a spot in the Ivy League tournament and bolster its at-large profile … Penn State enters this week’s field after a win over Johns Hopkins, which made them NCAA eligible. The loss to Stony Brook hinders their future at-large chances as it will be difficult to get back to .500.
Penn’s résumé is getting weaker by the game following a loss to Dartmouth. The Quakers’ lone win over a team slated to be in the field is Johns Hopkins, who is the last team in the field. The Blue Jays need to beat Maryland to gain entry to the Big Ten tournament, otherwise, Hopkins will be waiting nervously next Sunday … Stanford is the third seed in the Pac-12 tournament, where an additional win over Colorado could clinch an at-large bid.
Colorado is the No. 2 seed and will likely face Stanford in Friday’s Pac-12 semifinal … Georgetown played seven games against top 20 teams this year and lost them all. The Hoyas need to win the Big East tournament … Liberty is another at-large candidate without a quality win and in need of winning its conference tournament.
Hofstra’s loss to Towson all but ends its at-large chances, which is a missed opportunity now that Virginia Tech is ineligible due to record … Richmond will rue its loss to George Mason, which puts the Spiders as the No. 3 seed in this week’s A-10 tournament hosted by Mason … Duke, like others this far down in the RPI, is missing quality wins. A win Wednesday over Notre Dame would clinch a spot … Army West Point is No. 30 in the RPI and on the fringe of the at-large pool.
PROJECTED BRACKET
Bracketing procedures:
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The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
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Conference matchups are to be avoided in the first round.
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This year there are 15 automatic qualifiers, which means the four weakest resumes are assigned to play-in games on Tuesday, May 7 or Wednesday, May 8, on the campus of the stronger team. No at-large teams will be selected for the play-in games. Those play-in winners will travel to the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds.
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It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
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The seven and eight seeds host two games in the first round leading to a second-round game at its home site, while the top six seeds get byes into the second round.
Play-In Games
Furman/SOUTHERN at Jacksonville/ATLANTIC SUN
Fairfield/MAAC at Mount St. Mary’s/NORTHEAST
College Park, Md.
James Madison/CAA vs. Penn
James Madison/Penn at (1) Maryland/BIG TEN
Princeton, N.J.
Mount St. Mary’s/Fairfield at (8) Princeton/IVY
Loyola/PATRIOT vs. Johns Hopkins
Syracuse, N.Y.
Stony Brook/AMERICA EAST vs. Penn State
Stony Brook/Penn State at (4) Syracuse
Evanston, Ill.
USC/Pac-12 vs. Florida/AAC
USC/Florida at (5) Northwestern
Newton, Mass.
Dartmouth vs. UMass/Atlantic 10
Dartmouth/UMass at (2) Boston College (ACC)
Charlottesville, Va.
Furman/Jacksonville at (7) Virginia
Denver/BIG EAST vs. Navy
Chapel Hill, N.C.
Colorado vs. High Point/BIG SOUTH
Colorado/High Point at (3) North Carolina
Notre Dame, Ind.
Michigan vs. Stanford
Michigan/Stanford at (6) Notre Dame
Last four in: Penn, Stanford, Penn State, Johns Hopkins
First four out: Duke, Georgetown, Hofstra, Richmond
Moving in: Furman, Penn State
Moving out: Mercer, Virginia Tech
Multi-bid conferences: ACC (5), Big Ten (5), Ivy League (3), Pac-12 (3), Patriot (2)