There’s plenty still to come in the fortnight before Selection Sunday — twists, surprises and upsets, no doubt.
But one thing that is clearly diminished this season is the threat of bid snatchers in conference tournaments.
Sure, there will be conference tournaments to keep an eye on (more on those in a minute). But unlike the recent past, there are a few leagues looking more and more like one-bid territory regardless of who claims the conference title.
The America East, where Albany has largely ruled of late, is only going to have one entry in the 17-team field. No need to worry about the Great Danes falling and squeezing someone else out of the field this year.
Denver has dominated the Big East regular season since it entered the league, but has stumbled in the conference tournament three years running to foil another program’s at-large hopes. This time, the Pioneers are far from a sure thing to land an NCAA bid. Villanova would actually have a better case for an at-large, but it isn’t safely in the field, either.
Despite its strong start, Towson will be vulnerable to exclusion should it fall in the Colonial tournament.
The Big Ten and the Ivy could have a potential bid thief lurking in their respective fields, but the only team borderline at-larges are definitely rooting for at this stage is Loyola. The Greyhounds aren’t locked into the field, but would make a strong at-large candidate if forced into that situation with a Patriot League tournament loss. The teams shuffling for the last spot in the field will surely be Loyola fans in another two weekends.
A look at how things stand through Sunday’s action, with data courtesy of the NCAA.
Automatic Qualifiers (9)
|
|
RPI |
SOS |
T5W |
T10 |
T20 |
26+ L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | 1 | 11 | 3-1 | 6-1 | 6-1 | — |
| Penn | 4 | 12 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 5-3 | — |
| Loyola | 5 | 9 | 1-1 | 4-3 | 5-3 | — |
| Towson | 11 | 14 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 4-4 | — |
| Villanova | 13 | 7 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 4-5 | Drexel (28) |
| Air Force | 19 | 43 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2-3 | Utah (55) |
| Hobart | 24 | 57 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 0-2 | Saint Joseph's (52) |
| Marist | 35 | 45 | 0-1 | 0-4 | 0-5 | Detroit Mercy (30), Bucknell (31) |
| Albany | 42 | 34 | 0-3 | 0-4 | 1-5 | Vermont (45), Harvard (47) |
Penn State at No. 1 is perhaps the only thing in this exercise that would achieve a consensus at this stage. … Penn has won eight in a row, including a sweep of the six Ivy League schools. If the Quakers aren’t yet in a spot where they could lose out and still be in the field, they’re awfully close. …
The committee had Loyola pegged at No. 9 entering last week, which is an illustration of what sort of impact a single game (the Greyhounds’ loss to Boston University) can have within the RPI. Loyola should land an NCAA tournament home game if it wins out. … Towson sits in a three-way tie for the lead in the Colonial and takes this spot based on an RPI edge over Massachusetts and Delaware. …
Villanova is part of a five-team scrum at 3-1 or 2-2 in the Big East. Saturday’s regular-season finale at Providence won’t help the Wildcats’ profile. … Air Force remains in a three-way tie atop the Southern Conference, along with High Point and Richmond. … Hobart takes over the Northeast Conference’s automatic bid after upending Mount St. Mary’s over the weekend. …
Marist can clinch an outright Metro Atlantic title with a defeat of Canisius on Friday. Either way, the Red Foxes are hosting the league tournament. … Albany faces Stony Brook on Long Island on Friday night, with the winner getting hosting duties for the America East tournament.
At-Large Bids (18 teams/8 slots)
|
|
RPI |
SOS |
T5W |
T10 |
T20 |
26+ L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | 2 | 1 | 4-1 | 6-2 | 7-3 | — |
| Maryland | 3 | 8 | 2-2 | 4-2 | 6-2 | — |
| Syracuse | 6 | 5 | 1-2 | 5-2 | 7-2 | Colgate (38) |
| Yale | 7 | 18 | 1-1 | 3-2 | 6-2 | — |
| Virginia | 8 | 4 | 2-2 | 4-2 | 7-3 | — |
| Ohio State | 9 | 17 | 1-2 | 3-2 | 4-3 | — |
| Notre Dame | 10 | 2 | 2-3 | 4-4 | 5-5 | Richmond (26) |
| Cornell | 12 | 6 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 4-4 | — |
| Johns Hopkins | 14 | 3 | 0-5 | 1-6 | 4-6 | — |
| Denver | 15 | 19 | 0-2 | 4-3 | 4-4 | — |
| Army | 16 | 26 | 0-2 | 0-3 | 2-3 | Lehigh (32) |
| Georgetown | 17 | 30 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 2-3 | Marquette (36) |
| Boston University | 18 | 38 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | Lehigh (32), Colgate (38), Harvard (47) |
| North Carolina | 20 | 9 | 1-4 | 1-6 | 1-6 | — |
| UMass | 21 | 33 | 0-2 | 1-3 | 3-3 | Hofstra (46) |
| Rutgers | 22 | 16 | 1-3 | 1-5 | 2-5 | Lehigh (32) |
| High Point | 23 | 51 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 4-0 | Jacksonville (39), St. John's (56) |
| Princeton | 25 | 22 | 0-3 | 1-4 | 1-6 | Brown (27) |
Despite a close call on Long Island against Marquette, Duke remains the safest of the at-large teams. The Blue Devils are well-positioned to land a top-four seed at this stage. … Maryland can effectively lock up a first-round home game with a victory over Johns Hopkins on Saturday in College Park. …
Syracuse looks every bit as good as their data (if not better). That hasn’t been the case all that often in the last five years. … Yale’s profile isn’t going to change much before the Ivy League tournament. The Bulldogs face Quinnipiac and Harvard to close out the regular season. …
Virginia’s resume didn’t get helped at all by blasting VMI and Marist. In fact, the Cavaliers’ RPI suffered for playing those two games. …Ohio State might have a narrow road to the Big Ten tournament, but its profile for the NCAA tournament is actually pretty sound so long as it beats Michigan on Friday. The Buckeyes, however, look like they will be hard-pressed to land a first-round home game. …
Notre Dame’s chances of landing a home game in the NCAA tournament probably hinge on beating Duke in the ACC semifinals. … Was interesting the committee’s weekend ranking release had Cornell ahead of Notre Dame. The Big Red do have a head-to-head win, but Notre Dame probably has the edge over the course of the rest of their respective profiles. …
A great strength of schedule can only do so much for Johns Hopkins. If it loses to Maryland on Saturday, its only path to the NCAA tournament will be winning two games in three days in the Big Ten tourney. …
Denver is sitting there at the edge of the field, but the Pioneers’ best path into the field is going to be winning the Big East tournament in their own stadium. … Army isn’t going to be helped one bit by its next two games --- against NJIT on Friday, then a Patriot League quarterfinal at home on April 30. … Georgetown probably needs to win out (St. John’s, Big East tournament) to earn a second NCAA bid in a row. …
Could North Carolina land an at-large berth? Don’t count it out if the Tar Heels beat Syracuse and Virginia this week. … Rutgers still has Penn State and the Big Ten tournament to come, so the Scarlet Knights have a chance to improve their at-large hopes. … Boston University, Massachusetts, High Point and Princeton are included for the sake of thoroughness, but all four have minimal (at best) at-large chances at this stage
PROJECTED BRACKET
A few reminders on piecing together the bracket:
-
The committee seeds the top eight teams and then assigns the unseeded teams based on geography in an attempt to limit air travel while trying to maintain bracket integrity.
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Conference matchups are to be avoided in the first round.
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If applicable, quarterfinal host schools are funneled into their own site. Hofstra and Fairfield are this year’s quarterfinal hosts.
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Of the nine automatic qualifiers, the two with the weakest resumes are assigned to the preliminary round game the Wednesday before the first round. At-large teams are not selected for play-in games.
Hempstead, N.Y.
(1) BIG TEN/Penn State vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Marist-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Yale vs. Ohio State
East Hartford, Conn.
(5) Virginia vs. COLONIAL/Towson
(4) IVY/Penn vs. BIG EAST/Villanova
Hempstead, N.Y.
(3) Maryland vs. NORTHEAST/Hobart
(6) Syracuse vs. Cornell
East Hartford, Conn.
(7) PATRIOT/Loyola vs. Notre Dame
(2) Duke vs. SOUTHERN/Air Force
Last three in: Ohio State, Cornell, Notre Dame
First three out: Denver, Johns Hopkins, Georgetown
Multi-bid conferences: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (3)