With upsets across the board, this year’s NCAA women’s lacrosse tournament field will be among the most difficult to project. Seemingly, every team has a pock on its résumé relative to its standing in the RPI, save for teams like Maryland and Stony Brook.
So let’s start at the top. Maryland holds steady as the top seed with four wins against the RPI top 10. With North Carolina’s run to the ACC championship, the Tar Heels now have three such wins, one of which includes Maryland. UNC also has three losses in the same category, creating difficult situations for the selection committee, because all those teams will be seeded closely to the Heels.
Then, what do you do with Stony Brook? The consensus No. 1 team in the human polls, Stony Brook’s numbers are good, but strength of schedule has taken a hit since entering America East play. The Seawolves remain undefeated, but in main selection criteria used for seeding, they likely will fall short of the Tar Heels who have a superior RPI, strength of schedule and more quality wins.
Further down the S Curve, there are teams like Syracuse and Virginia, who have .500 records and are likely locks for the tournament. How can this be? Well, their computer numbers are excellent (first and third, respectively, in strength of schedule), and teams below them have significant losses. Remember, the committee will not punish you for “good” losses (generally RPI Top 20-25).
On the bubble, these losses are prevalent: Dartmouth, Denver, Johns Hopkins, Notre Dame, Penn State and USC all feature significant victories. All but the Blue Jays also have significant losses to teams 34th or worse in the RPI. Parsing those teams apart from each other will be challenging, especially when you factor in a team like Johns Hopkins, which has a very good win (No. 9 Loyola) and no bad losses. Or a team like Navy, whose three losses are all to top-10 teams, but doesn’t feature a top-20 victory.
This weekend features opportunities. The teams listed above, except for Notre Dame and USC, will play games in their conference tournaments that could push them into lock position.
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Dartmouth’s good win over Princeton was wiped out by Brown on Saturday, so a victory over Penn in the Ivy semis would be better than the teams around it.
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Denver’s Big East semifinal against Georgetown could be season-defining. A second loss to the Hoyas would put the Pioneers on the bubble.
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Johns Hopkins has the Loyola victory and that’s it. The Blue Jays are 1-7 against the RPI top 30. A win over Maryland would shoot the Jays up the board.
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Penn State gets a second crack at Northwestern. The stunning loss to Michigan leave the Nittany Lions vulnerable to their first missed tournament since 2011.
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Navy would play the role of bid thief if the Mids can win the Patriot League outright. Loyola is a lock to get in. The Midshipmen and Denver have been trading spots with Denver and Dartmouth much of the past month in terms of selection criteria.
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Duke and Cornell were officially eliminated from tournament consideration due to their sub-.500 records.
Notes: Records against the top 10, top 11-20, top 21-30 and losses to teams outside the top 30 are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of April 29), not human polls. First place teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the case of a tie, the conference’s No. 1 seed is listed.
Automatic Qualifiers (14)
|
|
RPI |
SOS |
T10 |
T11-20 |
T21-30 |
31+ L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 1 | 1 | 3-3 | 4-0 | 4-0 | — |
| Maryland | 2 | 5 | 4-1 | 4-0 | 2-0 | — |
| James Madison | 4 | 19 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 4-0 | — |
| Florida | 5 | 2 | 2-2 | 4-1 | 0-0 | — |
| Stony Brook | 6 | 36 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 2-0 | — |
| Loyola | 9 | 26 | 1-1 | 32- | 3-0 | — |
| Stanford | 12 | 31 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4-0 | — |
| Princeton | 15 | 14 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | — |
| High Point | 22 | 57 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-0 | — |
| UMass | 24 | 32 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 2-0 | Cornell (31), Yale (32), VCU (74) |
| Marist | 47 | 67 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Yale (32), Canisius (44), La Salle (77), Iona (81) |
| Jacksonville | 50 | 103 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — |
| Bryant | 69 | 100 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | Delaware (32), Brown (34), Canisius (44), Harvard (46), Mount St. Mary's (66) |
| Detroit Mercy | 89 | 113 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | Michigan (36), Ohio State (55), Cincinnati (65), Coastal Carolina (78), Duquesne (82), Mercer (94) |
North Carolina now owns the top RPI and SOS and is in line for a top-four seed. … Maryland remains the top-seeded team. A third straight Big Ten tournament title would clinch that on Selection Sunday. … James Madison’s win over Towson was a boost to the Dukes’ hopes of a top-four seed. …
Florida’s numbers took a hit by playing Butler. The Gators host the Big East tournament this week and likely need help to gain a top-four seed. … Stony Brook dispatched Albany for another America East regular season title. Another two wins should keep the Seawolves in top-four seeding. … Loyola is on the cusp of hosting duties. A Patriot League championship, if it comes against Navy in the final, could be enough for those rights. …
Stanford’s impressive run to the inaugural Pac-12 title on Colorado’s home field secured the Cardinal’s return to the NCAA tournament. … Princeton crushed Penn to capture the Ivy League’s top seed and hosting the tournament. … High Point rose to 22nd in the RPI, has a decent at-large profile, but likely not enough if the Panthers don’t win the Big South tournament. …
UMass returns to Richmond, Va., for the Atlantic 10 tournament. The first opponent could be the last team to beat the Minutewomen: fourth-seeded VCU, which has to get past Davidson first. … Jacksonville hosts the Atlantic Sun tournament and is a heavy favorite to repeat. … Marist is the top seed in the volatile MAAC, which features four semifinalists that all shared the conference regular season title. …
Bryant hosts the NEC tournament for the fifth straight season. … Detroit Mercy is the Southern Conference’s regular-season winner and must faces host Mercer in a semifinal matchup.
At-Large Bids (17 teams/13 spots)
|
|
RPI |
SOS |
T10 |
T11-20 |
T21-30 |
31+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College | 3 | 12 | 1-1 | 4-0 | 6-0 | — |
| Northwestern | 7 | 6 | 1-3 | 3-0 | 3-1 | — |
| Towson | 8 | 21 | 1-3 | 3-0 | 3-1 | — |
| Penn | 10 | 27 | 0-2 | 3-1 | 1-0 | — |
| Colorado | 11 | 13 | 0-2 | 3-2 | 1-1 | — |
| Georgetown | 13 | 15 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 3-2 | — |
| Navy | 14 | 33 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3-0 | — |
| Virginia Tech | 16 | 23 | 0-4 | 2-1 | 4-1 | — |
| Denver | 17 | 22 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Temple (43) |
| Johns Hopkins | 18 | 7 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — |
| Dartmouth | 19 | 30 | 0-2 | 1-0 | 0-1 | Brown (34) |
| Syracuse | 20 | 3 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | — |
| Virginia | 21 | 4 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 3-2 | — |
| USC | 23 | 10 | 0-3 | 2-4 | 1-0 | Oregon (40) |
| Penn State | 25 | 11 | 0-6 | 1-1 | 2-0 | Michigan (34) |
| Richmond | 26 | 59 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | — |
| Notre Dame | 27 | 18 | 0-4 | 1-1 | 2-3 | Albany (56) |
Boston College missing out on a second win over North Carolina will likely cost the Eagles a top three seed. … Northwestern faces Penn State in the Big Ten semifinals for the fourth straight year as the Wildcats look to secure hosting rights. … Towson narrowly missed a major win over JMU and could get a rematch in a few days on the Dukes’ home turf. …
Penn won a share of its 11th straight Ivy League title, but missed out on the outright title and hosting the league tournament due to its loss to Princeton. … Colorado couldn’t complete a perfect home schedule. The Buffaloes are a lock to get in and will likely be flying to Florida or Northwestern for its first-round game. … A repeat of last year’s Patriot League championship is the easiest path for Navy, which is squarely on the bubble. …
Virginia Tech is a lock for the tournament with five wins against the RPI top 30. … Denver’s numbers have continued to rise in the computer due to the success of Colorado and Stanford, both of which fell to the Pioneers. … Johns Hopkins is once again on the bubble and hoping the committee values the early-season win over Loyola enough to get them in if the Jays can’t win the Big Ten. …
Some losses hurt more than others and Dartmouth’s result against Brown could derail the Big Green’s NCAA push. … Syracuse has the highest-rated strength of schedule among its 10 best opponents (average of 8.0). … Virginia’s loss to Notre Dame pushed it further down the line, but the Cavaliers should be OK on Sunday. …
USC will have one of the longest waits on Sunday as the Trojans were unable to overcome Stanford, falling for a third time to the Cardinal. … Penn State played one of the toughest schedules in the nation, going 0-6 against the RPI top 10 and 3-1 against teams rated 11-30. … Richmond has no bad losses, but no good wins to get them into the discussion. … Notre Dame likely fell one win shy in the ACC tournament to garner an at-large selection.
PROJECTED BRACKET
Bracketing procedures:
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The committee seeds the top eight teams to host first- and second-round games. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
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Conference matchups are to be avoided in the first round.
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This year there are 14 automatic qualifiers, which means the two weakest résumés are assigned to a play-in game on Tuesday, May 8 or Wednesday, May 9, on the campus of the stronger team. No at-large teams will be selected for the play-in games. That play-in winner will travel to the No. 7 seed.
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It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
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The 7 and 8 seeds host two games in the first round, leading to a second-round game at its home site, while the top six seeds get byes into the second round.
College Park, Md.
Virginia vs. Georgetown
Winner plays at (1) Maryland/BIG TEN
Towson, Md.
Marist/MAAC at (8) Towson
Loyola/PATRIOT vs. Penn State
Harrisonburg, Va.
Penn vs. Johns Hopkins
Winner plays at (5) James Madison/CAA
Chestnut Hill, Mass.
Syracuse vs. UMass/ATLANTIC 10
Winner plays at (4) Boston College
Stony Brook, N.Y.
Princeton vs. USC
Winner plays at (3) Stony Brook /AMERICA EAST
Gainesville, Fla.
Colorado vs. Jacksonville/ATLANTIC SUN
Winner plays at (6) Florida/BIG EAST
Evanston, Ill.
Detroit Mercy/SOUTHERN/Bryant/NEC at (7) Northwestern
Stanford vs. Denver
Chapel Hill, N.C.
Virginia Tech vs. High Point/BIG SOUTH
Winner plays at (2) North Carolina
Last four in: USC, Penn State, Johns Hopkins, Denver
First four out: Navy, Dartmouth, Notre Dame, Richmond
Moving in: Princeton, Denver, Bryant, Detroit Mercy
Moving out: Navy, Dartmouth, Wagner, Central Michigan
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (5), Big Ten (4), Pac-12 (3), Big East (3), CAA (2), Ivy (2)