Welcome to Beyond the Basics!
My name is Zack Capozzi, and I run LacrosseReference.com, which focuses on developing and sharing new statistics and models for the sport.
The folks at USA Lacrosse Magazine offered me a chance to share some of my observations in a weekly column, and I jumped at the chance. Come back every Tuesday to go beyond the box score in both men’s and women’s lacrosse.
In my men’s lacrosse Beyond the Basics, I took a look at five different ways to settle the question of, “Who is best?” On the women’s side, we are lucky that ACC teams have conference play coming up, which means they will answer that question on the field and we won’t have to resort to debating models.
But for describing who is best right now, my favorite framework is my LaxElo model. And right now, the team at the top is your defending champion Boston College. The Eagles’ LaxElo rating is 2457; for some context, Loyola is currently 10th with a LaxElo rating of 2059. To put BC’s rating into perspective, we can convert those two Elo ratings into a win probability. The difference in their ratings means that, on a neutral field, we would expect BC to beat the Greyhounds nine out of 10 times.
One feature of LaxElo is that it carries through from year to year. After an adjustment, you start each season where you ended the previous season. Since it’s a relatively slow-moving algorithm, this gives us a chance to see how a program has evolved over time. And that is what I’m going to use this space for, to look at the teams that have increased their Elo rating the most over the past 13 months. It’s one thing to win a few games to start a season, but by using the longer time frame, we can see who is evolving in a sustained way.
Boston College – 2457
It’s not going to surprise you to hear that Boston College is the team that has seen their stock rise the most since the start of the 2021 season. It seems hard to believe that they actually suffered three losses last season, but the 24 wins (18 last year and six this year) more than make up for it, especially considering one of them was the national title game.
They ended the 2020 season with a LaxElo rating of 2047 (which would put them 11th right now). Since then, the 410 LaxElo points they’ve gained has been the largest increase of any Division I women’s lacrosse team. Obviously, they are the No. 1 1 ranked team at the moment.
The engine for their climb has been none other than Charlotte North, the reigning Tewaaraton winner. But remember, she first came to Chestnut Hill in 2020, not 2021. The rise of the Eagles’ LaxElo rating coincides with a change in her role more than it does her presence on the roster. Let’s look at the percentage of the team’s assists that North has generated in her three seasons with the team:
2020: 36%
2021: 8%
2022: 13%
That’s right. In 2020, she was more of a distributor. Over time, the coaching staff figured out how to shift players around and get the most out of everyone’s skills. A 2457 LaxElo rating (and a national championship trophy) is what they can show for their efforts.
UC Davis – 1827
The next biggest LaxElo jump is a somewhat lesser known team. But make no mistake, UC Davis is a program on the rise. Despite a two-game losing streak, you can see how much this program advanced during the 2021 season when it finished with a 12-4 record.
In my LaxElo model, every team starts at 1500. And because it’s a closed system (the total available rating points is 1500 times the number of teams), 1500 will always be the “average” rating. At the end of 2020, UC Davis had a LaxElo rating of 1454, which is below average. Their rise through yesterday’s games puts them in 22nd nationally. Their two losses this year are to Denver and Colorado, two of the best teams out west. UC Davis has put themselves into the conversation with those teams thanks to its 2021 showing; now the Aggies have a chance to prove they belong.
To do so, draw controls will be an area to watch. In their rise to No. 22, their offense has gone from (on an opponent-adjusted basis) 52nd in 2020 to 29th this year. Their defense went from 91st to 52nd. The draw game has gone the other direction. They are currently 79th after finishing last year 52nd and ending the 2020 season in 46th.
Temple – 1775
Here’s another team that has crossed over the 1500 average line since the end of 2020. Coach Bonnie Rosen has been with the Owls for a long time, but in the past 13 months, her team has played some of its best lacrosse during her tenure.
In the past season-plus, the Owls have gone 15-7 and gained 318 LaxElo rating points to go from a 1457 to their current mark of 1775 (good for 26th nationally). The defense has taken a step back after a high watermark of No. 7 nationally last season (losing Courtney Taylor to the transfer portal didn’t help). But if we take the longer view, their current ranking of 38th is still better than where they ended the 2020 season.
I’ll give you two reasons that Temple has seen its standing go up so much the past two seasons. The first is goaltending. The Owls finished 2020 ranked as the 94th-best goaltending team in the country. Last year, they were better, but still 76th. So far in 2022, the trend has continued, and the Owls, behind a strong start from Annie Carroll, are currently 35th nationally.
The second is that the offense has reached new heights this year. Their 35.9-percent opponent-adjusted efficiency puts them 20th, which is the best ranking a Temple offense has achieved since I’ve been tracking college lacrosse stats. Belle Mastropietro is leading the way with 28 percent of the team’s shots and 21.6 percent of their assists. Quinn Nicolai and Mackenzie Roth round out a top three that has collectively accounted for 48 percent of the team’s play shares.
Rutgers – 1675
At the end of the 2019 season, Rutgers bottomed out with a LaxElo rating of 1262 (today that would be 90th in Division I women’s lacrosse). Today, the Scarlet Knights’ LaxElo rating is 1675, and they are up to 40th. Sometimes, the story is best told in stats, and don’t get me wrong, Rutgers’ stats are much better than they were even two years ago.
But sometimes, and I think this is one of those cases, the stats are incidental compared to the people involved. In this case, the end of 2019 coincides with the arrival of Coach Melissa Lehman “on the banks.” Sometimes, you can point to a stat or a player that has made the difference. In this case, my intuition says that the new coaching staff has been able to orchestrate a total program transformation that will have staying power.
That said, if you forced me to pick a stat in which the Scarlet Knights have improved the most, it’s in the possession game. Rutgers is averaging nine more possessions than its opponents this year. The Scarlet Knights ended the 2019 season winning just 43.5 percent of their draws (81st). This year, it’s 57 percent (21st). Having a possession advantage allows a team to dictate the pace of the game and impose its own style. The Big Ten schedule will present a challenge, but don’t be surprised if Rutgers continues to have success, even against the conference heavyweights.
Duke – 1995
The ACC was a three-horse race last year. And if we are being honest, it seemed like a two-horse race between North Carolina and Syracuse until BC went on an NCAA tournament run for the ages. With a 5-1 start (and so close to 6-0), Duke is trying to force its way into that conversation. There is still a gap here. BC, North Carolina and Syracuse are first, second and and fourth in the LaxElo ratings at the moment. Duke is 13th.
A 17-9 record over the past season-plus has pushed them to their current standing and unlike some other teams, there is one thing to point to here. The offense is hot. With a 45.6-percent adjusted efficiency mark, the Blue Devils have the No. 1 offense in Division I women’s lacrosse. With Maddie Jenner providing the possessions, Catriona Barry, Katie DeSimone and Olivia Carner have feasted on opposing defenses.
LACROSSE STATS RESOURCES
My goal with this column is to introduce fans to a new way to enjoy lacrosse. “Expand your fandom” is the mantra. I want you to walk away thinking about the players and stories presented here in a new light. But I also understand that some of these concepts can take some time to sink in. And part of the reason for this column is, after all, to educate.
To help this process along, I have several resources that have helped hundreds of lacrosse fans and coaches to internalize these new statistical concepts. The first is a Stats Glossary that explains each of my statistical concepts in more detail than I could fit here. The second is a Stats 101 resource, which provides context for each of my statistics. What is a good number? Who’s the current leader? That’s all there.
And last, I would love to hear from you. If you have questions or comments about the stats, feel free to reach out.