Welcome to Beyond the Basics!

My name is Zack Capozzi, and I run LacrosseReference.com, which focuses on developing and sharing new statistics and models for the sport.

The folks at USA Lacrosse Magazine offered me a chance to share some of my observations in a weekly column, and I jumped at the chance. Come back every Tuesday to go beyond the box score in both men’s and women’s lacrosse.

We are at roughly the midway point of the 2022 Division I women’s lacrosse season. Take a moment to let that sink in.

Now, the best lacrosse is still to come, but given that we are nearly into April, I thought it would be a good time to take stock of the year thus far. And specifically, how does it fit into the trends that have been developing in the women’s game over the past half-decade.

Is 2022 a continuation? Did the COVID season of last year reshape the game in any fundamental ways?

ROSTER DEPTH

The most unequivocal trend that I found when looking backward is roster depth. And note that this is not roster size. It’s the total number of players (between both teams) who are actually on the field doing something that shows up in the box score. If rosters had more players, but coaches were only playing the same top players, you wouldn’t see this trend.

My assumption here is that as lacrosse has grown at the youth level over the past decades, the number of players qualified to see the field in Division I women’s lacrosse has gone up. Having more players good enough to contribute has allowed coaches to rest their top players a bit more and get valuable playing time from deeper down the bench.

Over the long term, it is great for teams to be able to see what more players can do under game pressure because it gives coaches more reps seeing how different combinations of players work together. And when you can do that with younger players, they get the reps they need to develop, which means they’ll be ready to replace older players as they graduate. It’s always good to know what your plan is when a star moves on.

I believe that roster design/development is one of the real opportunities for forward-thinking college lacrosse teams to gain an edge. Having more Division I caliber players per team gives coaches the opportunity to use practice and some game time to experiment with optimal combinations, both for the current season and with an eye toward the future.

TURNOVER RATE

It’s one thing to play more players, but is it really leading to better play? Is there any way to know that more players actually means more talented players? Here’s a clue.

Turnover rates have been on the decline for years, culminating in this year’s 35.3-percent mark. In 2019, as a comparison, the turnover rate across all of Division I women’s lacrosse was 38.9 percent. It’s hard to really pinpoint a “why” here. After all, fewer turnovers could be the result of less aggressive offense. But there is one reason to think it’s the product of better offenses: the number of possessions per game has gone up.

So, the pace at which the game is being played has gone up. More possessions means shorter possessions. But as we’ve established, turnover rates have gone down, too. You could argue that more possessions could mean sloppy back-and-forth action, but in fact, more possessions than ever are ending in goals or stops by the defense. To me, that is good lacrosse.

EFFICIENCY

Now, do all these changes benefit the offenses or the defenses more? It’s reasonable to assume that more skilled players and fewer turnovers means that offenses have gained the upper hand. That doesn’t appear to be the case, at least in 2022.

In fact, efficiency was down very slightly in 2021, and 2022 has seen the lowest efficiency rating across Division I women’s lacrosse since 2018. Granted, we’ll need to see where we end up at the end of the season, but so far, defenses have had the (relative) upper hand this year.

So, if turnover rates are down and efficiency is down, that can only mean one thing. It must be shooting.

SHOOTING PERCENTAGE

One of my thoughts when I saw the lower turnover rates went straight to stick design. I’m not an equipment expert, but I’ve seen the discussion about heads and the new shooting capabilities they’ve given women’s lacrosse players. Perhaps the different heads have reduced the number of passes that end up on the ground, too; that would explain the lower turnover rates.

But if it’s truly a new advantage that players have because of their heads, you would expect that to show up in the shooting percentages. But that’s not what we see. Shooting had been on the rise, but once again, 2022 has seen defenses (and keepers) reasserting themselves.

But the impact of shooting on efficiency is not just a question of shooting percentages. It also matters how many bites at the apple an offense is getting, either from rebounds or because of a backed-up miss. And that’s where the double whammy comes into play. Not only are shooting percentages down, but teams are getting fewer shots-per-possession every season.

I can admit it: this was a surprising result. I started this analysis with turnovers and possessions per game. The reduction in turnovers and the increased pace of play naturally had me expecting to see an increase in efficiency.

It’s a bit of a mystery how defenses have managed to offset those factors with more saves and defensive stops. (Defensive coordinators are smiling reading this.) It’s certainly worthy of more analysis. I’d be curious to know what the general theories are, but hopefully this article has given you a sense of what the trends are, if not why they are happening.

It’s always interesting to take a step back and see how the game has changed, even subtly, over the years. No better way to do that than with stats and some good old-fashioned line charts.

LACROSSE STATS RESOURCES

My goal with this column is to introduce fans to a new way to enjoy lacrosse. “Expand your fandom” is the mantra. I want you to walk away thinking about the players and stories presented here in a new light. But I also understand that some of these concepts can take some time to sink in. And part of the reason for this column is, after all, to educate.

To help this process along, I have several resources that have helped hundreds of lacrosse fans and coaches to internalize these new statistical concepts. The first is a Stats Glossary that explains each of my statistical concepts in more detail than I could fit here. The second is a Stats 101 resource, which provides context for each of my statistics. What is a good number? Who’s the current leader? That’s all there.

And last, I would love to hear from you. If you have questions or comments about the stats, feel free to reach out.