Welcome to Beyond the Basics!
My name is Zack Capozzi, and I run LacrosseReference.com, which focuses on developing and sharing new statistics and models for the sport.
The folks at USA Lacrosse Magazine offered me a chance to share some of my observations in a weekly column, and I jumped at the chance. Come back every Tuesday to go beyond the box score in both men’s and women’s lacrosse.
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The prize for the most exciting/historic game of the week goes to Pittsburgh and Duquesne. I have included the win probability chart for their game below, but by my count, the win probability line crossed the 50-percent mark seven times in this overtime thriller. To me, this is the mark of an exciting game — the more that win probability line hugs 50 percent, the more tense and exciting the game is.
So, congrats to the Panthers on win No. 1. Here’s hoping the rest are as fun as this one.
4.9 ASSISTS PER GAME
In 2021, Katie Checkosky had 18 assists for James Madison. Many players had more. What is impressive is not the number of assists, but the fact that she generated so many with so few touches. Checkosky’s play share in 2021 was just 3.3 percent, good for ninth on the Dukes’ roster. Eight players got more playing time … none of them had more assists.
Here’s a way to think about this. Given her play share (7.7 percent), if Emma Johnson — who is no longer on the roster — created assists at the same rate Checkosky did last year, she would have averaged 4.9 assists per game, which would have been second in all of Division I women’s lacrosse.
9%
Michigan held Notre Dame to a remarkable 14.6-percent efficiency in its win over the weekend. That’s seven goals over 48 possessions. Notre Dame is obviously still figuring out the offense after the departure of Andie Aldave, but given the track-record of the Irish, when applying our opponent adjustment, that efficiency rate is actually in the single digits (9 percent).
I think it’s important to adjust rate stats, like efficiency or shooting percentage, to account for the strength of the opposing defense or offense. Since the model rates Notre Dame as an above-average offense, the Wolverines adjusted defensive efficiency is better than their raw adjusted efficiency. The takeaway is that, for now at least, the Wolverines have the highest rated defense in the country.
With High Point, Denver, USC and a full Big Ten slate, we’ll get plenty of chances to see if this unit is for real.
33/44/49
Between Alyssa Parrella and Alexa Mattera, Hofstra is replacing 33 percent of their playing time, 43 percent of their team assists and 49 percent of their shots.
She was quite a bit further down the depth chart than some of her teammates, but keep an eye on Taylor Mennella this season. Her usage-adjusted EGA, which is my all-in-one player efficiency metric, landed her in the 99th percentile nationally. That suggests she may be a candidate to replace all the production they lost.
Her high efficiency rate was largely driven by her ability to create assists without turning the ball over. Losing 43 percent of your assists to graduations and transfers may not sting the Pride too much if they can get Mennella’s distributor skills to scale.
58.7%
In the 2021 season, Holy Cross was second-to-last in the entire country in draw control win rate. The team won just 33 percent of draws, and as a result, it averaged seven fewer possessions than its opponents. There are two ways to gain a possession advantage — winning more draw controls and clearing better than your opponent. Winning more draws is by far the more important factor.
It’s just been one game, but against Fairfield, Holy Cross flipped the script. It won 17 of 30 draws, and even adjusting for Fairfield being slightly below average coming in, the opponent-adjusted draw control rate worked out to 58.7 percent. That means that, so far, Holy Cross has been a full 26 percentage points better than last year.
Freshman Lindsay Hult (seven draw controls) and senior Finley Cassidy (five) were the main contributors here, and if they keep it up, a better draw control rate is going to give the Crusaders a much better chance in 2022.
LACROSSE STATS RESOURCES
My goal with this column is to introduce fans to a new way to enjoy lacrosse. “Expand your fandom” is the mantra. I want you to walk away thinking about the players and stories presented here in a new light. But I also understand that some of these concepts can take some time to sink in. And part of the reason for this column is, after all, to educate.
To help this process along, I have several resources that have helped hundreds of lacrosse fans and coaches to internalize these new statistical concepts. The first is a Stats Glossary that explains each of my statistical concepts in more detail than I could fit here. The second is a Stats 101 resource, which provides context for each of my statistics. What is a good number? Who’s the current leader? That’s all there.
And last, I would love to hear from you. If you have questions or comments about the stats, feel free to reach out.