Beyond the Basics: Exploring the Efficient Frontier in Women's Lacrosse

Welcome to Beyond the Basics!

My name is Zack Capozzi, and I run LacrosseReference.com, which focuses on developing and sharing new statistics and models for the sport.

The folks at USA Lacrosse Magazine offered me a chance to share some of my observations in a weekly column, and I jumped at the chance. Come back every Tuesday to go beyond the box score in both men’s and women’s lacrosse.

Today, we are going to go on a journey. A journey to the Efficient Frontier.

WHAT IS THE EFFICIENT FRONTIER?

Ever see a game and think, “Wow, that player had a great game?” For a sub-segment of the population, the next question is, “How great was it? Where does it rank?” (I have come to understand over my lifetime that not everyone feels compelled to go to these next steps. I’m not sure whether it’s a blessing or a curse.)

The question of where something ranks is not a simple one in a sport as complex as lacrosse. Is most goals in a game the measure? Well, what about the players that created those goals via assists? What about players who didn’t score a lot but did something else really well? But you wouldn’t say that the greatest game was the one with the most ground balls? That’s too one-dimensional.

Fundamentally, any ranking must implicitly answer the question of, “What do you care about most?” And a one-dimensional answer to that question is never going to be satisfactory when you are talking about something like “best games.”

Personally, I am a big fan of well-rounded, adaptable players who can do different things well depending on the situation. The challenge is finding a way to create a ranking that captures this. And that is difficult because there is a fine line between “does everything well” and “master of none.” This is where the Efficient Frontier gives us a nice stark dividing line.

To put it in English, if you are trying to tell whether a particular player game was “all time,” the Efficient Frontier is the line beyond which there are no games that were objectively better across three dimensions: goals, assists and ground balls. It’s helpful to think of the Efficient Frontier as a line because it continually moves outward as new games set the new boundary.

You could have a player on the Efficient Frontier with three goals, four assists and four ground balls in a game. But if the next day, someone has three goals, four assists, and five ground balls, then, all of a sudden, the frontier has moved, and our original game is no longer on it.

Well as luck would have it, after zero Efficient Frontier games in 2021, three different players in Division I Women’s lacrosse have given us games that have pushed the boundaries of the Efficient Frontier.

NICOLE MCNEELY

On March 15, Siena lost to UMass 18-12. That result might not etch itself in the minds of Saints fans, but what Nicole McNeely did in that game should. Her stat line was four goals, four assists, seven ground balls and four draw controls. Her total contribution added up to 6.73 EGA (expected-goals-added).

And that, ladies and gentlemen, qualifies her performance as one of just 10 Division I women’s lacrosse games currently on the Efficient Frontier. (My data goes back to 2016). Think about that, there have been 6,501 games played in that time period. And that means roughly 180,000 individual player stat lines. Of those, just 10 currently make up the Efficient Frontier.

Talk about a select group. I love when models like this surface stories and players you might not otherwise have heard of. McNeely’s evolution as a player is certainly worth noting.

AURORA CORDINGLEY

While you may have missed McNeely’s game, I think you probably are aware of what Aurora Cordingley did against Villanova. The Jay-turned-Terp standout has been on everyone’s radar from the beginning of the season, and she’s been a big part of why the Terps offense appears to be fully “back.”

Against the Wildcats on March 13, Cordingley finished with six goals, five assists and five ground balls. Her total EGA production was 8.07. It was about as well-rounded a game as you will see. And efficient, too. Those six goals came on just seven shots.

I mentioned that Efficient Frontier games are, by definition, games in which a player did everything well. And when we think about Cordingley, that’s what stands out. Her advanced metrics have been uniformly in the top 20 percent, and to do that in every category is not easy.

CAMDYN O’DONNELL

Our final Efficient Frontier game of the year comes courtesy of Camdyn O’Donnell, who dragged the Aztecs to a three-goal victory against Oregon on February 27. Compared to our other two games, this was the one where the team probably doesn’t end up winning the game except for the individual contribution of the frontierswoman.

O’Donnell’s game has been memorialized thanks to a stat line of four goals, three assists and eight ground balls. The wild thing about this game is that O’Donnell didn’t even have the top EGA mark on her own team. That honor went to Deanna Balsama (eight goals and 8.29 EGA).

But anyone can put up 8.29 EGA. Only 10 players currently sit on the Efficient Frontier throne.

LACROSSE STATS RESOURCES

My goal with this column is to introduce fans to a new way to enjoy lacrosse. “Expand your fandom” is the mantra. I want you to walk away thinking about the players and stories presented here in a new light. But I also understand that some of these concepts can take some time to sink in. And part of the reason for this column is, after all, to educate.

To help this process along, I have several resources that have helped hundreds of lacrosse fans and coaches to internalize these new statistical concepts. The first is a Stats Glossary that explains each of my statistical concepts in more detail than I could fit here. The second is a Stats 101 resource, which provides context for each of my statistics. What is a good number? Who’s the current leader? That’s all there.