Welcome to Beyond the Basics!

My name is Zack Capozzi, and I run LacrosseReference.com, which focuses on developing and sharing new statistics and models for the sport.

The folks at USA Lacrosse Magazine offered me a chance to share some of my observations in a weekly column, and I jumped at the chance. Come back every Tuesday to go beyond the box score in both men’s and women’s lacrosse.

Last week, I introduced the concept of the Efficient Frontier and went through the games from Division I women’s lacrosse that currently sit on that most haloed of thrones. I figured it wouldn’t be fair to leave out the guys. So today, we’ll go through the current state of the Efficient Frontier on the men’s side.

As a refresher, the Efficient Frontier is the line beyond which there are no games that were objectively better across three dimensions: goals, assists and ground balls. It’s helpful to think of the Efficient Frontier as a line because it continually moves outward as new games set the new boundary.

You could have a player on the Efficient Frontier with three goals, four assists and four ground balls in a game. But if the next day someone has three goals, four assists and five ground balls, then, all of a sudden, the frontier has moved and our original game is no longer on it. If you value a well-rounded player, there aren’t many better ways to identify “best games” than this.

The odd thing is that the last Efficient Frontier game was nearly a year ago. On April 4, 2021, Pat Kavanagh had four goals, five assists and six ground balls in Notre Dame’s victory over Syracuse. So, with no 2022 games having achieved Frontier status, we’ll need to dig a bit deeper into what we know about Efficient Frontier games and what that means for the likelihood that we’ll see one this year.

PRE-SHOT-CLOCK FRONTIERSMEN

An important thing that you might have guessed about the Efficient Frontier is that the faster a game is played, the more likely it is that it will produce an Efficient Frontier game. Sure, the game is still 60 minutes, but a faster pace means more stuff is happening. And more stuff means more plays and more plays means a greater chance of a statistically impressive stat line.

At first glance, it might not be a surprise that going back to 2015, 2019 saw the largest number of Efficient Frontier games. Of course, 2019 is the first season with the shot clock. But in reality, it’s not as much of a factor as you might think. In the four seasons pre-shot-clock, we find eight total frontier games. In the two-and-change seasons since, we have seven.

And the pacing data seems to match. In the pre-shot-clock era, Division I men’s lacrosse averaged 68.5 offensive possessions per game. Post-shot-clock, that number has ballooned to 78.4. My initial hunch was that the shot clock would wipe out all pre-shot-clock Efficient Frontier games. After all, it just takes one player having a great day to eliminate an existing frontiersman. But that hasn’t really happened. Instead, more possessions have meant a slightly greater chance of any given game producing a new frontiersman.

Turns out those pre-shot-clock players just had some great days that have stood the test of time.

BALANCE OF POWER

Pacing suggests that Efficient Frontier games should be more common than ever. And that is even more so the case this year; in 2022, we’ve seen an average of 80.1 offensive possessions per game. This is the highest yearly figure in my database. The fastest game on two feet is getting faster.

But we still have zero frontier games this year. Maybe something more structural is happening? Perhaps defenses are becoming more effective, which has reduced the scope for the scoring needed to etch your name in this particular brand of history?

Again, though, that doesn’t seem to be it. Scoring is right where it’s been every year in the shot clock era. Here are the average point totals (goals plus assists) for each of the past four seasons:

2019: 36.2
2020: 37.8
2021: 36.5
2022: 37.2

Scoring is the same, so it’s not as if there is less scope for offensive players to rack up the stats necessary.

TIME IS RUNNING OUT

We’ve established that there is nothing preventing 2022 from producing an Efficient Frontier game. And the season is barely half-over, right? Wrong. The Efficient Frontier seems to close early.

Of the 15 games that currently make up the men’s lacrosse Efficient Frontier, nine of them were recorded in March. Four were in April and just one each was recorded in February and May. And there does appear to be a structural explanation. Here is the number of offensive possessions we’ve seen per game in each month of the season (shot clock era only):

February: 79.8
March: 78.2
April: 77.5
May: 76.5

Every month, we lose one possession. As the temperature rises, the pace of these games goes down. As we said above, slower pacing means less stuff happening. Less stuff means fewer Efficient Frontier games.

And lest you think that the February pacing should lead to more Efficient Frontier games, we need to think about roster depth. Teams just play a lot more players early in the season, which means any individual is less likely to have an exceptional stat line.

THERE IS NO FORMULA

OK, so with the exception of the temperature rising, there is no good reason that the 2022 Division I men’s lacrosse season has not produced an Efficient Frontier game. So, who’s going to be the one to do it?

It’s a bit hard to say because there is not a normal Efficient Frontier game. We can split out the 15 active frontier games based on the dominant stat (out of goals, assists and ground balls).

Here are the five games that were goal-driven:

• Matt Moore on March 8, 2020, for Virginia against Brown with seven goals, three assists, and five ground balls

• Dylan Molloy on March 8, 2015, for Brown against Michigan with eight goals, five assists, and three ground balls

• Tye Kurtz on March 30, 2019, for Delaware against Fairfield with seven goals, three assists, and five ground balls

• Connor Fields on Feb. 25, 2017, for Albany against Drexel with six goals, four assists, and five ground balls

• Lyle Thompson on March 25, 2015, for Albany against Harvard with nine goals, three assists, and four ground balls

And the five that were assist-driven:

• Pat Spencer on March 2, 2019, for Loyola against Holy Cross with three goals, eight assists, and four ground balls

• Ryan Lanchbury on March 20, 2021, for Richmond against Bellarmine with three goals, nine assists, and three ground balls

• Connor Fields on March 6, 2018, for Albany against UMass with five goals, seven assists, and five ground balls

• Jeff Teat on April 7, 2018, for Cornell against Harvard with four goals, eight assists, and three ground balls

• Tucker James on April 9, 2016, for Bryant against Wagner with six goals, seven assists, and three ground balls

And the five that were ground-ball heavy:

• Christian Daniel on March 2, 2019, for Navy against Bucknell with four goals, three assists, and nine ground balls

• Pat Kavanagh on April 3, 2021, for Notre Dame against Syracuse with four goals, five assists, and six ground balls

• Pat Spencer on May 11, 2019, for Loyola against Syracuse with three goals, six assists, and seven ground balls

• Jake Froccaro on March 5, 2016, for Villanova against Delaware with five goals, three assists, and seven ground balls

• Mike Rooney on April 30, 2015, for Stony Brook against Vermont with five goals, four assists, and six ground balls

Just in case you were skeptical about this whole concept, just look at the players on that list. “Nobodies” aren’t putting up Efficient Frontier games. So, if we see one this year, chances are it’s going to come from someone with at least a decent shot at being at the Tewaaraton Award ceremony.

I also think that it’s interesting that these milestones aren’t being recorded in games that you’d expect to be blowouts; many of them are conference games and several are between traditional powerhouses.

THE FUTURE OF THE FRONTIER

I hope we see another frontiersman this year. And I hope he can do it without knocking anyone off the list. My worst nightmare is that someone records a game so amazing that it eliminates all the other frontier games in one fell swoop. It would have to be crazy (seven goals, nine assists and nine ground balls), but it would sort of ruin this concept.

The hope is that players keep filling in the niches within the boundary. There are many variations of goals, assists and ground balls that would still qualify as efficient frontier without knocking anyone off the list.

Regardless, I’ll keep an eye on the box scores and let the world know if anyone else makes a journey to the Efficient Frontier.

LACROSSE STATS RESOURCES

My goal with this column is to introduce fans to a new way to enjoy lacrosse. “Expand your fandom” is the mantra. I want you to walk away thinking about the players and stories presented here in a new light. But I also understand that some of these concepts can take some time to sink in. And part of the reason for this column is, after all, to educate.

To help this process along, I have several resources that have helped hundreds of lacrosse fans and coaches to internalize these new statistical concepts. The first is a Stats Glossary that explains each of my statistical concepts in more detail than I could fit here. The second is a Stats 101 resource, which provides context for each of my statistics. What is a good number? Who’s the current leader? That’s all there.

And last, I would love to hear from you. If you have questions or comments about the stats, feel free to reach out.