Welcome to Beyond the Basics!

My name is Zack Capozzi, and I run LacrosseReference.com, which focuses on developing and sharing new statistics and models for the sport.

The folks at USA Lacrosse Magazine offered me a chance to share some of my observations in a weekly column, and I jumped at the chance. Come back every Tuesday to go beyond the box score in both men’s and women’s lacrosse.

OK, so I have to confess something. I can’t help myself. I’m supposed to be educating you about advanced stats. This column is supposed to go “beyond the basic” stats to get to the important stuff. You aren’t coming here for fun and excitement. Stats are supposed to be cold, dry and lacking drama.

Shame on me, but we are going to talk bracketology. I do hope you can find it in your heart, dear reader, to forgive me.

On the other hand, the way I do bracketology is chock full of numbers. No hand-waving here, no assumptions, no big-league bias. My bracketology is compiled after 3,000 simulations through the rest of the 2022 season. This isn’t what I think will happen; it’s what the models say is the likely outcome.

So, I take it all back; let’s go beyond your basic bracketology and ask the robots what they think will happen on Selection Sunday.

IVY LEAGUE: 4.08 EST. BIDS

The Ivy League is having a moment. When they make the lacrosse movie about the pandemic, the Ivies are going to be front and center. They missed all of 2021 and they lost some great players like Jeff Teat and Michael Sowers (among others). The dominant narrative about the league seemed to be that they were going to suffer for having deprived us of the privilege of watching them last year.

Fast forward to this year, and no league is playing better, whether you want to look at the top of the conference or top-to-bottom. The most recent simulation ended with an average of 4.08 Ivy League teams making the NCAA tournament. This is up by 0.97 bids since last week. The league’s record over the past seven days was 7-0. The game that moved the needle most for the Ivies was the Harvard win over Michigan.

Currently, of the seven Ivy League teams, all seven have a hypothetical shot at securing an at-large bid if they don’t grab the conference’s automatic qualifier. Here are the overall chances that each of them ends up in the field on Selection Sunday (via AQ or at-large).

Chance of Making NCAA Tournament

Cornell: 97.2%
Princeton: 95.0%
Yale: 81.5%
Penn: 73.4%
Brown: 57.5%
Harvard: 2.5%
Dartmouth: 0.5%

BIG TEN: 2.45 EST. BIDS

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the big weekend the Big Ten had. The league went 5-1. including the Ohio State win over North Carolina. Since then, it’s not so much that the Big Ten has fallen off, it’s just that the Ivies start late and they’ve since stormed into our collective consciousness.

The most recent simulation ended with an average of 2.45 Big Ten teams making the NCAA tournament. This is down by 0.22 bids since last week. The league’s record over the past seven days was 3-3. The game that boosted the conference most was certainly the Ohio State win over Notre Dame (more on the ACC next).

All six Big Ten teams still are technically alive for an at-large, although Michigan and Penn State only had that happen in a couple of the thousand simulation runs. Here are the overall chances that each of them hears its name called during the selection show (via AQ or at-large).

Chance of Making NCAA Tournament

Maryland: 99.8%
Rutgers: 73.3%
Ohio State: 44.3%
Johns Hopkins: 23.8%
Michigan: 2.1%
Penn State: 1.3%

ACC: 2.01 EST. BIDS

The ACC is looking more and more like it could be a two-bid league. And with no conference tournament or AQ, the chances of a surprise are the lowest among any of the conferences profiled here.

The most recent simulation ended with an average of 2.01 ACC teams making the NCAA tournament. This is down by 0.73 bids since last week because the league’s record over the past seven days was 1-4. Virginia looked impressive against UNC, but the problem is that all three ACC teams with a non-conference opponent lost. From an RPI perspective, that’s crushing, especially when two of the losses were to Big Ten teams that are in the mix for an at-large spot.

Now, it should be said, of the five ACC teams, all do still have a hypothetical shot at securing an at-large bid. That’s the tailwind you get from playing such difficult out-of-conference schedules — the second and third RPI factors for ACC teams are uniformly high.

The problem is that now that we are into league play, an increase in the chances for a team like Notre Dame or Syracuse means a decrease in the chances for one of the other three. The overall probability that each of the ACC teams gets in looks like this.

Chance of Making NCAA Tournament

Virginia: 86.2%
Duke: 61.9%
North Carolina: 49.6%
Notre Dame: 3.0%
Syracuse: 0.7%

I was a bit surprised to see UVA at just 86.2 percent, so I checked on the simulations. In 15 percent of the simulations, the Cavaliers ended the year with four losses, and they made the field 61 percent of the time in those cases. Three percent of the time, they lost five of their last eight games and made the field 16 percent of the time. That is less often than they went undefeated, though (5 percent). Just a reminder that a team’s last game is no guarantee of future results.

BIG EAST: 1.28 EST. BIDS

Now that Rutgers made the tournament last year, I think Villanova is the new king of tough-bubble-luck. It seems like every year the Cats are in a position where if they can win “this game,” they’ll have a great shot at an at-large. And then they lose “that game” in crushing fashion. The most recent came on Sunday with their last-second loss to Penn.

The most recent simulation ended with an average of 1.28 Big East teams making the NCAA tournament. This is exactly where it stood last week. The league’s record over the past seven days was 3-4. The game that moved the needle most for the Big East was the Georgetown win over Richmond.

Of the six Big East teams, three have at least some shot of securing an at-large bid if they don’t grab the conference’s AQ. Realistically, though, we are at the point where the only way the Big East gets two teams in is if Georgetown doesn’t win the conference tournament. Here are the overall chances that each of them ends up in the field on Selection Sunday (via AQ or at-large).

Chance of Making NCAA Tournament

Georgetown: 81.8%
Denver: 31.6%
Villanova: 13.3%

PATRIOT LEAGUE: 1.17 EST. BIDS

The Patriot League is the last team with real at-large hopes. The SoCon technically has some scenarios in which a team wins out until the conference title game, loses and still gets in, but those are still dependent on things breaking just right elsewhere.

I was a bit surprised to see that Loyola’s at-large chances were nil, since the Greyhounds are still the No. 14 team in the LaxElo ratings and were receiving consideration in this week’s Nike/USA Lacrosse Men’s lacrosse Top 20. But with four losses already, it’s likely that an undefeated run up to the conference finals still wouldn’t be enough to get the Hounds in. AQ-or-bust for Coach Charley Toomey’s squad.

Anyway, the most recent simulation ended with an average of 1.17 Patriot League teams making the NCAA tournament. This is up by 0.04 bids since last week. The league’s record over the past seven days was 5-4, with the big result being the Boston U win over Bucknell. The extra .17 teams on the estimate basically reflects the chances that BU and Army both win until they meet in the conference tournament (likely in the title game).

At this point, of the nine Patriot League teams, four have a hypothetical shot at securing an at-large bid if they don’t grab the conference’s AQ. Here are the overall chances that each of them will be dancing (via AQ or at-large).

Chance of Making NCAA Tournament

Boston U: 35.5%
Army: 33.1%
Lehigh: 17.5%
Bucknell: 3.3%

LACROSSE STATS RESOURCES

My goal with this column is to introduce fans to a new way to enjoy lacrosse. “Expand your fandom” is the mantra. I want you to walk away thinking about the players and stories presented here in a new light. But I also understand that some of these concepts can take some time to sink in. And part of the reason for this column is, after all, to educate.

To help this process along, I have several resources that have helped hundreds of lacrosse fans and coaches to internalize these new statistical concepts. The first is a Stats Glossary that explains each of my statistical concepts in more detail than I could fit here. The second is a Stats 101 resource, which provides context for each of my statistics. What is a good number? Who’s the current leader? That’s all there.

And last, I would love to hear from you. If you have questions or comments about the stats, feel free to reach out.