Lacrosse Reference goes beyond the box score. Beyond the basics, if you will.
Lacrosse Reference was created in 2016 with the goal of bringing the analytical methods used in other sports to college lacrosse. The site’s focus has been on finding innovative ways to compare teams and players that are more nuanced than the broad-brush metrics that were common at the time.
As we head into the 2022 season, these are the metrics that matter about the teams in our Nike/USA Lacrosse Division I Women’s Preseason Top 20.
For a glossary of terms, head here.
1. BOSTON COLLEGE
EXCESS GOALS
Did you think we’d highlight anyone other than the Queen of the North? We all know she is a fantastic shooter, but shooting percentage understates her brilliance. Our models can compare a player’s output to what an "average" shooter would have done with the same profile of shots. Since North’s shots tend to be more difficult than average, her "excess shooting" marks are otherworldly. For her career, she’s a 90th-percentile shooter measured by raw shooting percentage, but top 1 percent, when you adjust for the difficulty of the shots she’s taken.
2. NORTH CAROLINA
INCOMING TRANSFER EGA
The rich get richer. That’s the name of the transfer game in college lacrosse. North Carolina, who was one Charlotte North explosion from being the undefeated national champion in 2021, brought in the most production via transfer of any team at 105.1 EGA, and it’s not close (Maryland has 55.3 EGA incoming). Losing Katie Hoeg means that the Tar Heels need to find a new primary distributor, but with this much coming in, it’s not as if they don’t have options.
3. SYRACUSE
ROSTER DEPTH
The third-best team in the ACC in 2021 probably wins the national title most other years. The conference was that stacked. Depth was a huge key for the Orange offense, and they’ll be even deeper with Emily Hawryschuk back. In 2021, Syracuse was the only team to have at least four players generate at least 10 percent of their team’s assists and six players take at least 10 percent of their team’s shots. That’s depth.
4. NORTHWESTERN
ASSIST-TO-TURNOVER RATE
Our hearts go out to Izzy Scane as she works to come back from a knee injury. But it also sets the stage for Erin Coykendall to have a coming out of sorts. She was right there with Belle Martire of William & Mary as the statistical darling of the 2021 season. In terms of career percentiles, Coykendall currently sits in the 99th percentile for assist-to-turnover rate, 96th for shooting percentage, 94th for excess shooting percentage and 90th for ball security. Her assist-to-turnover rate is actually the 17th-best among qualifying players since we’ve tracked the stat.
5. STONY BROOK
USAGE-ADJUSTED EGA
There may not be a team with bigger shoes to fill than Stony Brook. Losing Ally Kennedy, Taryn Ohlmiller and Kaeli Huff, among others, means that the Seawolves only return 34 percent of their offensive production. Keep an eye on Kira Accetella, though. In her second season, she had a 2.91 uaEGA rating. On a scale of 0 to 100, that puts her in the 97th percentile.
6. MARYLAND
INCOMING TRANSFER EGA
The Terps are losing a lot of production from last year’s team. Lizzie Colson and Catie May were key contributors for Maryland in 2021, and they’ve both moved on, leaving holes on both sides of the field. But it’s not as dire as it looks. Maryland’s incoming transfers generated 55.3 worth of EGA (expected goals) last season, which is the second-most of any Division I women’s lacrosse team that has published their 2022 roster.
7. NOTRE DAME
ADJUSTED TURNOVER RATE
Notre Dame was 9-0 last year against anyone not named Syracuse, Boston College or North Carolina. Unfortunately, they combined to go 0-7 against Tier A of the ACC. A stat that stands out for what was an excellent offensive unit was ball security. The Irish turned the ball over on 26.6 precent of their possessions, but when you account for the high rates at which their opponents (on average) turned teams over, their adjusted turnover rate was 22.1 percent, good for second nationally.
8. DUKE
ADJUSTED DRAW CONTROL WIN RATE
Yes, Duke was good on draws last year. But when you account for the strength of the Blue Devils’ opponents, they were really good. The 68.4 percent adjusted draw control win rate was good for No. 2 nationally. That helped the Blue Devils to a +5 possession advantage per game. With Maddie Jenner back, you’d expect that strength to rollover to 2022.
9. LOYOLA
RETURNING EGA
The word to describe Loyola as the Greyhounds enter 2022: continuity. The Greyhounds return a full 88.5 percent of their overall production (as measured by EGA). That is the ninth-highest total in all of Division I women’s lacrosse. Sorting their roster by play share, the most involved player that isn’t back is Holly Lloyd, who had 9 percent of their assists and took 4 percent of their shots.
10. FLORIDA
ADJUSTED DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY
UNC and Syracuse were the two best defenses in women’s lacrosse last year, but third on the list was Florida. A big part of the Gators’ success on defense was their ability to make opponents work for everything. On average, the Gators’ opponents didn’t take their first shot of a possession for 57 seconds. No early offense allowed in Gainesville.
11. VIRGINIA
USAGE-ADJUSTED EGA
The Cavaliers return a lot of their rotation from last year, so it’s not as if there are a lot of open holes in the roster. Still, I’ll be watching to see if Jaime Biskup gets some more opportunities. Her 3.99 usage-adjusted EGA puts her in the top 1 percent most efficient players in Division I women’s lacrosse.
12. JAMES MADISON
ADJUSTED SAVE PERCENTAGE
Behind a very strong season from Molly Dougherty, the Dukes boasted the third-best opponent-adjusted save percentage in the nation. JMU didn’t turn opponents away very much, so having a brick wall in goal was key to posting the fourth-best opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency in the nation.
13. PRINCETON
PLAY SHARE
Whereas some of the Ivy league teams are starting virtually from scratch, Princeton returns its top four players, ranked by Play Share. Play Share measures how much of a role each player has on a team, and it’s a metric in which Kyla Sears stands out. In 2020, Sears had 27 percent of the Tigers’ assists and she took 25 percent of their shots. This worked out to an 18.2 percent Play Share. Continuity: it’s a rare commodity in the Ivy League, but Princeton has it.
14. STANFORD
LAXELO
Last year was a high watermark for the Cardinal. Their end-of-season LaxElo rating of 2026 (No. 12 nationally) was the highest the program has ever registered. Ali Baiocco and company will get an early chance to show whether they are for real with a game against Syracuse on Feb 11.
15. DENVER
ASSIST-TO-TURNOVER RATE
Hannah Liddy and Kailey Conry combined for 61 percent of the Pios’ assists last year. Next woman up is Bea Behrins, who figures to be the primary distributor. Fortunately for Denver, she’s got an 80th-percentile career assist-to-turnover ratio and a steadily improving individual turnover rate.
16. RUTGERS
TRANSFER OFFENSIVE EGA
Rutgers staked a valid claim to the biggest transfer of the offseason when Stephanie Kelly moved over to New Brunswick from Saint Joseph’s. Her 2021 EGA mark of 47.6 means that Rutgers is adding the second-most offensive production via transfer of any team, save North Carolina.
17. DREXEL
ADJUSTED OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY
Drexel’s offense was good. The Dragons’ raw efficiency rating was 37.2 percent, good for No. 9 in Division I women’s lacrosse. But when you account for the strength of the opposing defenses, they look even better. Their opponent-adjusted efficiency rating was 38.8 percent, which puts them No. 6 overall.
18. JACKSONVILLE
LAXELO
The 2021 Dolphins finished the year with the highest end-of-season LaxElo rating since the metric was developed in 2016. With a returning trio of Sarah Elms (20th-highest EGA in Division I women’s lacrosse), Molly Brock (52nd) and Jenny Kinsey (75th), they’ll be looking to make it a short-lived high watermark.
19. UCONN
EXPECTED GOALS ADDED
Sydney Watson had a stellar 2021 campaign for UConn. She had 56 goals and 13 assists, but that actually undervalues her overall contributions. When we add everything she did, and use the expected goals model to convert it to EGA, her 92.4 mark was good for fifth in all of Division I women’s lacrosse. With so many players back this year, Watson and the Huskies would appear to have a bright 2022 ahead.
20. PENN
EXCESS SAVES
Since the Ivy League has played so few games during the COVID-19 years, it’s hard to get a good read on Penn. About the closest thing the Quakers have got to a known entity is goalie Krissy Kowalski. Across the 171 shots that she has faced in her career, Kowalski has saved 7.8 more shots than you would expect an average goalie to make. For her career, she’s a 91st-percentile keeper as measured by excess saves.