Welcome to Beyond the Basics!

My name is Zack Capozzi, and I run LacrosseReference.com, which focuses on developing and sharing new statistics and models for the sport.

The folks at USA Lacrosse Magazine offered me a chance to share some of my observations in a weekly column, and I jumped at the chance. Come back every Tuesday to go beyond the box score in both men’s and women’s lacrosse.

Last week, I took a look at some of the teams that appeared to have made some important leaps early in the season. These were generally teams that had improved their ranking in either offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency or draw controls by a substantial amount over where they finished last season. This week, I want to do something similar, but for individual players.

When I think of player performance, I tend to ignore the totals stats like goals, points or assists. For one thing, these are overly influenced by the number of games played. They are also influenced by the pace at which a team plays (more possessions means more chances to score, after all). But perhaps most important, total stats reflect a player’s role within a team as much, if not more than, how they are actually playing.

That’s not to say that cumulative stats are completely unimportant. EGA (expected goals added) is my go-to for quantifying a player’s total contribution, and it’s a key part of my statistical universe. But as I mentioned, anything cumulative is partly a matter of circumstance. To get to an idea of which players are playing best, you need to look at their stats in the context of how many chances they are getting. That is, in essence, the concept of player efficiency. (If you’d like to dig into the concepts, see the glossary link at the end of this article.)

For today, what we care about is players who’ve stepped into a larger role and thrived with their new opportunity. That means that their A) play share has increased significantly from last year and B) they’ve improved their individual player efficiency ratings. With luck, we’ll surface some players who may not be household names yet, but who may be by year’s end. And with that, let’s dive into the five Division I women’s lacrosse players who’ve made their own leaps to start 2022.

KATIE DESIMONE

The Duke offense is off to its best start in years. I adjust all of my stats to account for the quality of the teams played, and if you can believe it, the 20 goals that the Blue Devils scored against Wofford was actually their worst opponent-adjusted offensive performance of the season. As of this writing, Duke is the fourth-best offensive unit in the country.

And while Catriona Barry has gotten a very deserved share of the headlines, you could make an argument that the improvement that Katie DeSimone has shown since last season is a more important factor. In 2021, DeSimone had the eighth-highest usage rate of any Blue Devil. This year, she’s just behind Barry for the team lead. And what stands out for her in the early going is something I’ve been harping on in these pieces: turnovers.

In 2021, DeSimone shot just as well as she is shooting this year (54 percent compared to 55 percent), but her ball security has improved drastically. A year ago, she averaged 1.12 turnovers per game This year, that average if 0.60 per game. But when you factor in her much higher play share this year, her ball security rating has ballooned from a 23 (out of 100) all the way up to an 83 this year.

When your assists and shooting stay flat and your ball security rating goes through the roof, that’s a guaranteed boost to your player efficiency marks.

MIA LAWRENCE

I will admit, sometimes when I see a team in my rankings that is a surprise, I’ll go back and double-check my models, just to make sure there are no bugs causing a faulty table or report. And no offense to UC Davis, but when I saw the Aggies at No. 17 in my weekly rankings graphic, I did a double-take. Denver is the best of the West right now, but aside from USC, it’s not Stanford or Colorado that rates as the next-best team from that region. It’s UC Davis.

We aren’t talking about a ton of sample size so far (the Aggies have played just two games), but with six goals on nine shots, Mia Lawrence has shown signs of a breakout. And when a player steps into a larger role, she tends to take more difficult shots because they are the first (and last) option. So with Lawrence, you combine a higher shooting percentage with more difficult shots, and her excess goals mark has jumped even more than her shooting percentage has.

DANIELLE PAVINELLI

The 1-2 start for Florida is probably not what the Gators envisioned for the start of the season. But losses to North Carolina and a new-look Maryland team are not necessarily things to be ashamed of. And when you consider that this team is trying to replace their three highest usage players from last season, it’s even more understandable. That the offense is still No. 21 on an opponent-adjusted basis could be considered an achievement.

To get a sense of what’s been working (relatively), you have to start with Danielle Pavinelli. I suspect that coach Amanda O’Leary has to be thrilled with Pavinelli’s play so far in helping replace their trio of stars from last year’s roster. She has nearly tripled her usage rate while bumping up her individual player efficiency from the 77th percentile last year to the 96th percentile this year.

TATUMN KOHLBRENNER

Of the players that we are discussing today, Tatumn Kohlbrenner is part of the largest team-wide leap. The Bucknell offense has jumped from No. 77 last year to No. 25 in the early going this season. On an opponent-adjusted basis, the offensive efficiency has been 8.4 percentage points better than last season. But compared to the others, Kohlbrenner’s leap is a bit unique.

Several of the players mentioned here have seen dramatic increases in their play share this season, typically because other higher-usage players have moved on. Not so much here. Kohlbrenner had the sixth-highest usage rate on the team last year (6.2 percent), and it’s gone up a bit this season (9.9 percent; fourth on the team). What’s unique about this year versus last season is that the contributions she’s making have flipped.

In 2021, Kohlbrenner took just 3.7 percent of the team’s shots, and she had 14.7 percent of their assists. The issue is that her individual turnover rate was sixth-highest on the roster last year. I’m not sure she was well-suited to the distributor role. Fast forward to 2022, and she’s taking 15 percent of their shots and has 6.3 percent of their assists. She averaged 0.88 shots per game last year; through two games this year, she’s taking five shots per game.

You get the feeling that maybe a change in her role has led to a bit more comfort, and that’s led to better outcomes across the board.

SKYLAR MCARTHUR

The 3-0 start for Canisius is notable, because here we are on March 1, and the Griffs have already won more games than they did in 2021 or 2020 — and as many as they won in all of 2019. There are two primary stories here. Last week, I mentioned their draw control ranking, which has risen from No. 96 a season ago to No. 35. They are getting more possessions, which is good.

But possessions are only so useful if you aren’t turning them into goals, and that is where the offense and Skylar McArthur in particular have been much more effective than a year ago. In 2021, she shot just 27 percent on a little less than two shots per game. In 2022, she’s more than doubled her shots per game, and her shooting percentage is up to 67 percent. A higher rate on more shots is a tough feat to manage, but it’s the biggest reason that McArthur has gone from a league average efficiency to the 90th percentile.

One thing that I really like about Canisius’ shooting profile so far is that the team has the 14th-highest adjusted shooting percentage in the nation, but its shot-on-goal rate is 100th. A bad SOG rate paired with a bad shooting percentage is no good. But a low SOG rate paired with a high shooting percentage means that your shots tend to be goals or off-cage misses that are typically backed up. Uniquely in lacrosse, misses come in flavors, and an off-cage miss is not nearly as damaging as a shot that is saved. Keep sniping those corners, Griffins.

LACROSSE STATS RESOURCES

My goal with this column is to introduce fans to a new way to enjoy lacrosse. “Expand your fandom” is the mantra. I want you to walk away thinking about the players and stories presented here in a new light. But I also understand that some of these concepts can take some time to sink in. And part of the reason for this column is, after all, to educate.

To help this process along, I have several resources that have helped hundreds of lacrosse fans and coaches to internalize these new statistical concepts. The first is a Stats Glossary that explains each of my statistical concepts in more detail than I could fit here. The second is a Stats 101 resource, which provides context for each of my statistics. What is a good number? Who’s the current leader? That’s all there.

And last, I would love to hear from you. If you have questions or comments about the stats, feel free to reach out.