There’s something implicit to every set of NCAA tournament selections, regardless of sport and level: At the end of a regular season, there is enough information to render an accurate judgment and pick a postseason field.
It may not be universally acclaimed, and it may even be skewered. But there is data to back up nearly everything.
Not this year, though. It’s no one’s fault specifically, and certainly not the committee’s. But it had to go beyond numbers to make some of its decisions.
The Big Ten and its conference-only schedule was in the middle of two big ones, including slotting 12-0 Maryland as the No. 3 seed behind North Carolina and Duke.
“If nothing else, North Carolina has given us enough data to know they’re really good,” Towson athletic director Tim Leonard, the committee chairman, said. “Then we start talking about it, and say, ‘What’s the difference between Carolina and Duke other than Carolina got them late in the year? How can we put Maryland ahead of them when it’s the same argument? What do we know about Maryland other than they look really good, they have arguably the best player in the country and they’ve beaten up on everyone in the Big Ten? That’s it.”
When it came to 8-3 Rutgers, there was also an admission of a lack of certainty on how exactly to size up the Scarlet Knights.
“We’re relying on eye test evaluations from coaches, and all the coaches in the RAC [regional advisory committee] and coaches on the committee were high on Rutgers in that, ‘Look, this is a team that can play,’” Leonard said. “We don’t know enough about the Big Ten, but we also know that historically, it’s a great conference. Even though you just don’t know how good or how bad that league is, they were still throughout the course of the season the second-best team in a pretty good league. We just don’t know how good that league is.”
Leonard said the committee scrutinized Army, Loyola and Syracuse for the final two spots in the field, with Loyola’s four quality victories (Army, Georgetown and Navy twice) helping to snag it an at-large berth. More on the Army/Syracuse quandary below, but that decision is probably the one most likely to be referenced in future years.
One that probably won’t be but is worth a quick look right now? Georgetown landing the No. 5 seed while Notre Dame wound up as the No. 6.
“We just felt like Notre Dame didn’t really do anything in the non-conference,” Leonard said. “They really did not test themselves. They played some of the ... I hate to use the term ‘weaker’ teams, but that’s what it was, and only at home. Georgetown, even though they had a loss late to Loyola, but that was a good, tough non-conference game. Then obviously winning that Big East tournament and beating Villanova and Denver, they had a heck of a season.”
THE FAVORITE
North Carolina
The Tar Heels are the No. 1 seed for the first time since 1993, and deservedly so. North Carolina beat everyone in the ACC, picked off Denver early in the season and owns seven victories over the rest of the field — more than any other team.
But more than raw accomplishments, North Carolina has arguably shown both the highest floor and the highest ceiling of any team in the field. The Tar Heels throttled Denver, Syracuse and High Point (in the teams’ second meeting), and generally controlled Notre Dame and Duke in their final two games. Evan Carolina’s losses (by a goal against Duke and by two scores against Virginia) were close.
Joe Breschi’s bunch has a likely Tewaaraton finalist in Chris Gray, a veteran and balanced midfield and well-deployed depth. The Tar Heels aren’t a guaranteed winner, but they seem like the least likely team to get drilled.
LAST TEAM IN
Syracuse
Technically, Loyola and Syracuse were the last two teams in, but without too much concern for air travel (a whopping six teams will take flights to their first-round game) there wasn’t much movement away from a true 1-to-16 placement.
The top four seeds all play automatic qualifiers. Fifth-seeded Georgetown is facing the 7-5 Orange, which lost four games by at least seven goals but also managed a sweep of Virginia.
“That Army victory over Syracuse, we just talked and talked and talked about that and what a big win it was for that program, but that was also the first weekend of the year,” Leonard said. “That wasn’t what kept them out. It came down to three teams vying for two spots, and that was Loyola, Syracuse and Army. It was tough. You look at the schedule Syracuse played and some of the wins they had. The thing that kept questioning Syracuse was the losses they had; they got thumped in some of those, and yet they had good wins. Then we went to the coaches and said, ‘Tell us the eye test. Who would you not want to see,’ and they’re like, ‘Syracuse is loaded. They’re up and down, but they’re loaded.’”
FIRST TEAM OUT
Army
Black Knights fans no doubt recall the 2017 Selection Sunday snub, when Army was 12-4 and owned top-five victories over Notre Dame and Syracuse. But it had also lost to a 6-8 Navy team, a setback that stood out relative to the rest of the at-large field.
This year is probably harder to square, since Syracuse slipped into the field despite an 18-11 loss to the Black Knights on Feb. 21.
“We couldn’t get past the two wins that Syracuse had over Virginia,” Leonard said. “Those were just two really, really good wins. Army’s win over Syracuse was definitely big, but a couple losses to Loyola and Lehigh. At the end of the day, we gave that nod to Syracuse. A lot of it had to do with coaches and eye test. That’s what made it hard. We didn’t have those normal data points that we could really dig into.”
TOUGHEST DRAW
Maryland
The third-seeded Terrapins are staring at a potential quarterfinal road game against sixth-seeded Notre Dame. Someone was going to draw the short straw and deal with the Fighting Irish in South Bend. It just happened to be 12-0 Maryland, which fell to the No. 3 seed in part because of the difficulty of comparing its conference-only resume to teams that didn’t play in a closed circuit.
UPSET ALERT?
Loyola vs. Denver
Assuming Loyola makes it to its Sunday night date in the Mile High City — something brought into question by the positive virus test that forced the Greyhounds to withdraw from the Patriot League title game — the final game of the first round has the look of being immensely entertaining.
Denver has won 12 games, tied with Duke, Georgetown and Maryland for the most in Division I, and it possesses a potent offense littered with familiar names: Jack Hannah, Jackson Morrill, Ethan Walker and others. Loyola is peaking at the right time, winning its last four and effectively knocking both Navy and Army out of NCAA contention.
The programs have some history, even if they haven’t played since 2013. Loyola beat Denver three times in 2012 — in the regular season, in the ECAC semifinals and then in the NCAA quarterfinals — en route to the program’s lone national title.
A sneaky upset possibility: Bryant, which averaged 17.5 goals in its final four games. The Bulldogs travel to Virginia for a familiar coaching matchup. Bryant’s Mike Pressler and Virginia’s Lars Tiffany coached against each other annually in midweek Ocean State Cup games when Tiffany was at Brown.
PAYBACK TIME?
High Point vs. Duke
This one wins by default, at least for the first round. High Point has made life miserable for ACC teams on a semi-regular basis in recent years, but March 10 was not one of those times. Duke pounded the Panthers 27-8, the Blue Devils’ largest output against a Division I team since 1989. It’s unlikely things will be quite so lopsided the second time around.
There are only two potential regular-season rematches in the quarterfinals: Syracuse-Virginia and Denver-Duke. Syracuse’s two victories over Virginia are the reason the Orange are playing on, while Duke rallied for a 12-10 defeat of Denver on Feb. 5.
NAMES TO KNOW
Jared Bernhardt, A, Maryland — The Terrapins’ career leader in goals and points also has a school-record 53 goals this season in just 12 games. He’s among the Tewaaraton favorites as the postseason begins.
Reid Bowering, A, Drexel — The fifth-year senior missed time early in the season but has made up for it of late. The Canadian has 19 goals in his last five games, including a five-goal outing Saturday against Hofstra to earn CAA tournament MVP honors.
Adam Charalambides, A, Rutgers — Part of the Scarlet Knights’ AARP attack unit, the seventh-year player finally gets a chance to play in an NCAA tournament. Charalambides (37 goals, 16 assists) is joined on attack by fellow veterans Connor Kirst (32 goals, 15 assists) and Kieran Mullins (25 goals, 20 assists).
Jared Connors, LSM, Virginia — One of the most important pieces of any Lars Tiffany team is a transition-oriented long pole. Connors has two goals and five assists to go with his 70 ground balls and 19 caused turnovers.
Chris Gray, A, North Carolina — The national leader in points with 77, Gray can fill whatever role the Tar Heels need on a given day. In 20 games since his transfer from Boston University, Gray has 125 points (69 goals, 56 assists).
Chris Hervada, D, Monmouth — The co-defensive player of the year in the Metro Atlantic, the senior leads a unit that ranked second nationally in scoring defense (8.0 goals a game) behind only Georgetown.
Owen Hiltz, A, Syracuse — Hiltz’s role has changed for the better since Chase Scanlan was suspended/reinstated-but-didn’t-play/suspended again. The freshman has 12 goals and four assists in the Orange’s last three games, including a seven-goal outburst Friday against Robert Morris.
Pat Kavanagh, A, Notre Dame — The sophomore already owns the Fighting Irish’s single-season assists record (36), and his 23 goals are also a team-high in a balanced offense that has seven double-digit scorers.
Danny Logan, SSDM, Denver — Quite possibly the best short stick defensive midfielder this season, Logan ranks second on the Pioneers with 16 caused turnovers. He collected 41 ground balls and had four goals and four assists as a transition weapon.
Thomas McConvey, M, Vermont — It’s an accomplishment to be the top scorer on a team whose offensive ethos is to take as many shots as possible. McConvey had 33 goals as the Catamounts head into their first NCAA tournament.
Owen McElroy, G, Georgetown — A quick start in last year’s truncated season was no fluke. McElroy owns a .605 save percentage while backstopping an elite defense, and he heads into the postseason with five consecutive double-digit save performances.
Marc O’Rourke, A, Bryant — O’Rourke didn’t play in the Bulldogs’ first eight games. He has 20 goals and three assists in the four games since. That’s above-average production, and he will challenge Virginia in a first-round matchup.
Kevin Rogers, M, High Point — The Division III player of the year in 2020, Rogers transferred up for his final year of eligibility as a graduate student and has 36 goals for the Panthers — including four in Friday’s defeat of Richmond in the Southern Conference final.
Sam Shafer, G, Loyola — Benched in mid-April, Shafer reclaimed his job and owns a .557 save percentage over his last five outings. He’s played a key role in the Greyhounds’ late-season revival.
Mike Sisselberger, FO, Lehigh — Just how good has the Mountain Hawks’ faceoff guru been this season? On his worst day this season, he won 69.6 percent of the draws he attempted.
Michael Sowers, A, Duke — The former Princeton star finally gets to play in an NCAA tournament. He wasn’t quite as statistically dominant with the Blue Devils as in his Ivy League days, but that’s a high bar to reach. A team-high 67 points (30 goals, 37 assists) is plenty good enough to make Sowers one of the most valuable players in the tournament.
DON’T BE SURPRISED IF …
There’s an all-ACC final four
The bracket certainly sets it up fairly well. Three of the top four seeds (No. 1 North Carolina, No. 2 Duke and No. 4 Virginia) are ACC teams. In the remaining quadrant, sixth-seeded Notre Dame will have a home game in the quarterfinals if it can advance past Drexel.
But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. As much as the possibility was discussed in the past, the ACC final four monopoly has never happened, and the last time the league accounted for three semifinalists was 2014 (Duke, Maryland and Notre Dame).
YOU’LL HEAR A LOT ABOUT …
The end of Rutgers’ NCAA drought
And rightfully so. Regardless of how anyone views the Rorschach test that is the Big Ten’s league-only schedule, it’s easy to appreciate how much it means to the Scarlet Knights for finally making their first postseason since 2004 after plenty of Selection Sunday heartbreak in recent years.
“I’m pleased for our senior class,” coach Brian Brecht said. “They’ve been through a lot, and they’ve been great leaders for us. I’m very happy and proud of the whole team sacrificing this year to make this happen. Eight Big Ten wins, what a great job they’ve done all year long. No one’s ever going to have more than eight wins in the Big Ten ever again, so that is going to be something this team is going to be able to hold onto for the rest of their lives.”
The next step is advancing, something Rutgers hasn’t done in the NCAA tournament since 1990 when it won at Virginia. It returns to Charlottesville on Saturday, this time facing eighth-seeded Lehigh.
PREDICTIONS
1. Georgetown will earn its first NCAA tournament victory since 2007.
The Hoyas have graduated from the spunky upstarts they were in 2018 (when they lost in overtime at Johns Hopkins) and 2019 (when they dropped a 19-16 decision at Yale despite facing a minus-29 faceoff disparity). Now armed with their third Big East title in a row, they’re accustomed to success.
There are impressive pieces littered throughout the roster, with the ultra-competitive Jake Carraway leading things at the offensive end. Progress for Georgetown means winning a postseason game, and they’ll have a chance to do so against an inconsistent Syracuse bunch.
2. Faceoffs will play an even more disproportionate role than usual in this postseason.
Of the 13 faceoff men who won at least 60 percent of their draws this season and currently qualify for the NCAA’s rankings, seven will be part of this postseason: Lehigh’s Mike Sisselberger (.795), Vermont’s Tommy Burke (.720), Monmouth’s Matt Soutar (.714), Virginia’s Petey LaSalla (.641), Denver’s Alec Stathakis (.638), Duke’s Jake Naso (.629) and Notre Dame’s Kyle Gallagher (.621).
And that doesn’t even include Denver’s TD Ierlan, who has won 69.7 percent of his draws but meets neither the games played nor the workload requirements for the rankings.
Regardless, that’s a lot of quality faceoff guys, and they’re all likely to play a large role in their respective teams’ postseason fates.
3. At least two seeded teams won’t escape the first round.
Just a hunch, but with the tweaked postseason format and the Nos. 3, 5, 6 and 8 seeds all heading to at least nominally neutral fields (though Duke and Georgetown don’t have to travel far), there could be a surprise or two (or three) in the opening weekend.
Up until the final three weekends of the season, it felt like a high degree of predictability had set in. But there were plenty of twists as April turned into early May, and complete chalkiness doesn’t seem particularly likely.
GRADING THE COMMITTEE
B
Let’s start with an acknowledgment: This committee’s task was considerably more difficult than in a normal year.
There were fewer games overall, significantly fewer non-conference contests, an inability to make a remotely apples-to-apples comparison between the Big Ten and the rest of Division I, not to mention Loyola’s positive COVID test.
More than usual, this was a thankless task.
That’s why a shoulder shrug is an appropriate reaction to some of the decisions. Maryland as a No. 3 seed? It’s as reasonable a guess as any. Rutgers in or out? Both could have been justified.
Other things remain a bit more puzzling. This isn’t a year to point to non-conference schedules as an explanation for any decision, even if Notre Dame’s geographically friendly four-game non-ACC slate wasn’t arduous. Leaning on a standalone argument of the sixth-seeded Irish having one victory over a seeded team and fifth-seeded Georgetown owning two might have been better.
Then there’s the Army/Syracuse situation. In a year with limited data points, an emphatic one — Army’s head-to-head 18-11 victory on the road — was outweighed by other factors. The issue isn’t so much about arguing Army should absolutely be in. The Black Knights could have lost such a case vis-à-vis Loyola, which it just fell to Friday. And Army could have been squeezed out for purely subjective reasons if the last spot came down to it and Rutgers.
Syracuse is another matter. Credit to Leonard for addressing the question head on, but any consternation from West Point is understandable.