DON’T BE SURPRISED IF …
There’s an all-ACC final four
The bracket certainly sets it up fairly well. Three of the top four seeds (No. 1 North Carolina, No. 2 Duke and No. 4 Virginia) are ACC teams. In the remaining quadrant, sixth-seeded Notre Dame will have a home game in the quarterfinals if it can advance past Drexel.
But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. As much as the possibility was discussed in the past, the ACC final four monopoly has never happened, and the last time the league accounted for three semifinalists was 2014 (Duke, Maryland and Notre Dame).
YOU’LL HEAR A LOT ABOUT …
The end of Rutgers’ NCAA drought
And rightfully so. Regardless of how anyone views the Rorschach test that is the Big Ten’s league-only schedule, it’s easy to appreciate how much it means to the Scarlet Knights for finally making their first postseason since 2004 after plenty of Selection Sunday heartbreak in recent years.
“I’m pleased for our senior class,” coach Brian Brecht said. “They’ve been through a lot, and they’ve been great leaders for us. I’m very happy and proud of the whole team sacrificing this year to make this happen. Eight Big Ten wins, what a great job they’ve done all year long. No one’s ever going to have more than eight wins in the Big Ten ever again, so that is going to be something this team is going to be able to hold onto for the rest of their lives.”
The next step is advancing, something Rutgers hasn’t done in the NCAA tournament since 1990 when it won at Virginia. It returns to Charlottesville on Saturday, this time facing eighth-seeded Lehigh.
PREDICTIONS
1. Georgetown will earn its first NCAA tournament victory since 2007.
The Hoyas have graduated from the spunky upstarts they were in 2018 (when they lost in overtime at Johns Hopkins) and 2019 (when they dropped a 19-16 decision at Yale despite facing a minus-29 faceoff disparity). Now armed with their third Big East title in a row, they’re accustomed to success.
There are impressive pieces littered throughout the roster, with the ultra-competitive Jake Carraway leading things at the offensive end. Progress for Georgetown means winning a postseason game, and they’ll have a chance to do so against an inconsistent Syracuse bunch.
2. Faceoffs will play an even more disproportionate role than usual in this postseason.
Of the 13 faceoff men who won at least 60 percent of their draws this season and currently qualify for the NCAA’s rankings, seven will be part of this postseason: Lehigh’s Mike Sisselberger (.795), Vermont’s Tommy Burke (.720), Monmouth’s Matt Soutar (.714), Virginia’s Petey LaSalla (.641), Denver’s Alec Stathakis (.638), Duke’s Jake Naso (.629) and Notre Dame’s Kyle Gallagher (.621).
And that doesn’t even include Denver’s TD Ierlan, who has won 69.7 percent of his draws but meets neither the games played nor the workload requirements for the rankings.
Regardless, that’s a lot of quality faceoff guys, and they’re all likely to play a large role in their respective teams’ postseason fates.
3. At least two seeded teams won’t escape the first round.
Just a hunch, but with the tweaked postseason format and the Nos. 3, 5, 6 and 8 seeds all heading to at least nominally neutral fields (though Duke and Georgetown don’t have to travel far), there could be a surprise or two (or three) in the opening weekend.
Up until the final three weekends of the season, it felt like a high degree of predictability had set in. But there were plenty of twists as April turned into early May, and complete chalkiness doesn’t seem particularly likely.
GRADING THE COMMITTEE
B
Let’s start with an acknowledgment: This committee’s task was considerably more difficult than in a normal year.
There were fewer games overall, significantly fewer non-conference contests, an inability to make a remotely apples-to-apples comparison between the Big Ten and the rest of Division I, not to mention Loyola’s positive COVID test.
More than usual, this was a thankless task.
That’s why a shoulder shrug is an appropriate reaction to some of the decisions. Maryland as a No. 3 seed? It’s as reasonable a guess as any. Rutgers in or out? Both could have been justified.
Other things remain a bit more puzzling. This isn’t a year to point to non-conference schedules as an explanation for any decision, even if Notre Dame’s geographically friendly four-game non-ACC slate wasn’t arduous. Leaning on a standalone argument of the sixth-seeded Irish having one victory over a seeded team and fifth-seeded Georgetown owning two might have been better.
Then there’s the Army/Syracuse situation. In a year with limited data points, an emphatic one — Army’s head-to-head 18-11 victory on the road — was outweighed by other factors. The issue isn’t so much about arguing Army should absolutely be in. The Black Knights could have lost such a case vis-à-vis Loyola, which it just fell to Friday. And Army could have been squeezed out for purely subjective reasons if the last spot came down to it and Rutgers.
Syracuse is another matter. Credit to Leonard for addressing the question head on, but any consternation from West Point is understandable.