The race to May starts today, with Northwestern hosting Canisius in the NCAA Division I women's lacrosse opener. Here's a closer look at the Nike/US Lacrosse Preseason Top 20.
1. North Carolina
2016 record: 20-2 (7-0 ACC)
Last seen: Upending the reigning national champion thanks to goalie Megan Ward stoning the Terps for the second time in four years.
Starts lost: 27%
Scoring lost: 21%
Forecast: The Tar Heels lost their starting goalie from the NCAA final, but still have senior Caylee Waters, the 2015 IWLCA Goalie of the Year. Plus senior draw specialist Sammy Jo Tracy returns after recovering from a foot injury, as will Maggie Bill after taking a year off. Their leadership will be critical in tight games, but expect top-notch performances from top returning scorer Molly Hendrick and midfield dynamo Marie McCool.
Enemy lines: “Champ is the champ 'til they get beat. … Lock for the final four. … Return tons of talent led by Sammy Jo Tracy, Maggie Bill, Carly Reed, and Marie McCool. Sydney Holman’s back from ACL. Will need to replace Messinger.”
2. Maryland
2016 record: 22-1 (5-0 Big Ten)
Last seen: Losing to North Carolina in the NCAA championship game for the second time in four years, ending its bid for an undefeated season.
Starts lost: 26%
Scoring lost: 24%
Forecast: The first-ever three-time Tewaaraton winner Taylor Cummings just walked out the door. So did Tewaaraton finalist and All-American defender Alice Mercer. While Cummings stood by the restraining line during faceguards, happily watching a six-on-six offense highlighted by Megan Whittle, how much will her graduation loom in College Park? Food for thought: The Terps lost more seniors to start 2016 than 2017, and went undefeated until the championship game.
Enemy lines: “Maryland as an underdog? Who would’ve thought that would be possible, but losing Cummings and Mercer will do that. … Can Whittle run an offense? It’s yet to be seen. … Tons of talent led by Zoe Stukenberg along with a top recruiting class, but life without Taylor Cummings and Alice Mercer begins.”
3. USC
2016 record: 20-1 (9-0 MPSF)
Last seen: Playing toe-to-toe with Syracuse before falling in overtime, just one game shy of the coveted final four in just its fourth season.
Starts lost: 46%
Scoring lost: 37%
Forecast: The first-ever class graduated, but the Trojans will enter 2017 with a huge chip on their shoulder. Losing to Syracuse in the NCAA quarterfinals, one of the best games of 2016, left the Trojans wanting more. Rising senior All-American Michaela Michael is the leader, but USC also boasts nation’s No. 1 freshman recruit, U.S. U19 standout Kerrigan Miller.
Enemy lines: “Didn't lose a lot and did a fantastic job competing in 2016. This could be the year they crack the final four. … If USC wants to take that next step, [goalie Gussie] Johns needs to take one as well. She can’t have a repeat of a 25-percent save percentage in a quarterfinal game. … Kerrigan Miller will be an impact freshman.”
4. Stony Brook
2016 record: 17-4 (6-0 America East)
Last seen: Giving up a halftime lead to Syracuse and ending its hopes of a final four appearance.
Starts lost: 21%
Scoring lost: 7%
Forecast: Stony Brook is the dark horse of 2017. The Seawolves have been on the verge of breaking through for the past few seasons and enter spring with threats all over the field, from Courtney Murphy, the first player in NCAA history to score 100 goals in a season, to goalie Anna Tesoriero, who finished second in goals against average in Division I.
Enemy lines: “Return over 90 percent of scoring, starting goalie and defensive experience. Why can’t this be their year? … Spallina has done amazing things with this program. … Ohlmiller and Murphy could be best 1-2 combo in NCAA.”
5. Florida
2016 record: 18-2 (7-0 Big East)
Last seen: Losing two draws in overtime and ultimately the game to Penn State, quickly giving up its No. 2 seed after a well-rested bye.
Starts lost: 39%
Scoring lost: 31%
Forecast: The Gators already proved they could lose a Tewaaraton finalist and not miss a beat. Will they fare just as well without Nicole Graziano as they did without Shannon Gilroy? Sophomores Sydney Pirecca and Lindsey Ronbeck will lead that charge.
Enemy lines: “Always a ton of talent, but can they mesh? … Defense vs. Top 10 teams needs to improve substantially. … Some key losses, but reload with lots of talent. Sydney Pirreca will have another banner year.”